Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,533.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

New wallet event thesis

A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This 2-day-old wallet has already made 10 flagged large bets totaling $18.4k.
  • They are positioned across 4 related markets in the same event, totaling about $16k.
  • Buying Yes at 73¢ signals confidence that restoration is more likely than the market’s current 70% price.

$1,163 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%

New wallet event thesis

A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This 2-day-old wallet has already made 10 flagged large bets totaling $18.4k.
  • They are positioned across 4 related markets in the same event, totaling about $16k.
  • Buying Yes at 73¢ signals confidence that restoration is more likely than the market’s current 70% price.

$1,403 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%

New wallet event thesis

A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This 2-day-old wallet has already made 10 flagged large bets totaling $18.4k.
  • They are positioned across 4 related markets in the same event, totaling about $16k.
  • Buying Yes at 73¢ signals confidence that restoration is more likely than the market’s current 70% price.

$1,443 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%

New wallet event thesis

A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This 2-day-old wallet has already made 10 flagged large bets totaling $18.4k.
  • They are positioned across 4 related markets in the same event, totaling about $16k.
  • Buying Yes at 73¢ signals confidence that restoration is more likely than the market’s current 70% price.

$1,460 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% record bought No on a thin, wide-spread AI policy market while positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 347 resolved trades and is up $46K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 52 events and 71 markets.
  • The $3.1K No buy is large for this thin market, with only $8.2K traded in the last 24 hours.

$3,063 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb4f2...e5fa Outcome 26774627, $6,842 (75% win rate)
  2. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 26774627, $1,461 (94% win rate)
  3. 0x6703...9dc5 Outcome 26774627, $1,062
  4. 0xa7bf...e441 Outcome 26774627, $769
  5. 0x54d1...13f4 Outcome 26774627, $585 (80% win rate)
  6. 0x4d52...f88a Outcome 26774627, $575
  7. 0x32b3...acd9 Outcome 26774627, $364
  8. 0xa022...77f8 Outcome 26774627, $317 (72% win rate)
  9. 0xa59e...61f9 Outcome 26774627, $300
  10. 0x9b50...c5f9 Outcome 26774627, $286

Related Theses

Iran won’t charge Hormuz fees

Covers 2 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 3 related markets

Hormuz ship traffic falls

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Fewer than 25 ships will transit

Covers 1 related market

No foreign intervention in Gaza

Covers 2 related markets

Houthis fail to hit shipping

Covers 3 related markets

Hormuz traffic will exceed 50 ships

Covers 1 related market

Claude Fable 5 stays unavailable

Covers 4 related markets

Israel won’t accept Gaza plan

Covers 1 related market

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

ResolvedClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$8,533 tracked5 signalsClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

56d ago

$1,163 on Yes at 73¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

57d ago

$1,403 on Yes at 73¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

57d ago

$1,443 on Yes at 73¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

57d ago

$1,460 on Yes at 73¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

57d ago

$3,063 on No at 45¢

Related Theses