Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,406.
Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump
Notable Trades
Cross-market AI bettor
A historically active cross-market bettor with a 73% resolved record is building a broader position on this Claude-restoration event and caught a quick move from 89¢ to 94¢.
- This bettor has won 73% of 49 resolved trades and is up lifetime.
- They have put about $10K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This entry already moved from 89¢ to 94¢, matching the market’s strong recent momentum.
$1,552 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A 1-day-old repeat-flagged wallet is building a sizable Yes position after catching a major price move on the same market.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already placed $9.7k across five flagged bets and is adding size here.
- This bettor bought Yes as low as 18¢ before it moved to 86¢, then added another $3.0k at 86¢.
- They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis around Claude Fable 5 restoration.
$3,002 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A 1-day-old repeat-flagged wallet is building a sizable Yes position after catching a major price move on the same market.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already placed $9.7k across five flagged bets and is adding size here.
- This bettor bought Yes as low as 18¢ before it moved to 86¢, then added another $3.0k at 86¢.
- They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis around Claude Fable 5 restoration.
$5,695 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%
Profitable serial thesis bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $3,000 of No on a relatively quiet AI policy market, adding to a broader same-event thesis.
- This bettor has won 71% of 343 resolved bets and is up $45K lifetime.
- They trade across many related markets, with 51 events and $233K in serial cross-market positioning.
- The $3K No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quieter market.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a thin AI-policy market, with a 67% resolved win rate and $123.8k lifetime profit.
- This bettor has won 67% of 118 resolved trades and is up $123.8k lifetime.
- They have traded across 35 related events, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven style rather than a one-off bet.
- The $1.16k Yes buy is large for this thin market, equal to about 43% of its 24h volume.
$1,158 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 37%
Top Holders
- 0x39f0...2c5d — Outcome 10493545, $30,980
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — Outcome 10493545, $9,076 (75% win rate)
- 0x2e7a...29f6 — Outcome 10493545, $4,099 (53% win rate)
- 0x37fd...7101 — Outcome 10493545, $3,014
- 0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 10493545, $3,000 (44% win rate)
- 0x7290...b1b3 — Outcome 10493545, $2,485
- 0xc955...b1e9 — Outcome 10493545, $2,400 (73% win rate)
- 0x885a...efcc — Outcome 10493545, $2,039
- 0x8683...a547 — Outcome 10493545, $1,700
- 0xc135...21b0 — Outcome 10493545, $1,501 (42% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal by June end
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Mojtaba remains out of sight
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