Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will restore US customer access to Claude Fable 5, also known as Claude Mythos, by June 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $1,474 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, including a 79% serial cross-market winner alert. The market resolves “Yes” only if Anthropic restores access to Claude Fable 5 or a confirmed same model for US customers by the deadline.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,474.
Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump
Notable Trades
79% serial cross-market winner
Surfacing because this is a proven serial cross-market trader with a 79% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L taking a Yes-equivalent position.
- This bettor has won 79% of 34 resolved markets and is up about $6,054 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $228,860 deployed across 28 related events.
- Selling No at 74¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 26¢, matching the current market price.
$1,474 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x7014...d7e9 — No, $11,066
- 0x1543...baaf — Yes, $8,052 (66% win rate)
- 0x24fb...973e — Yes, $6,540 (77% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $4,500 (64% win rate)
- 0xc955...b1e9 — No, $4,249
- 0x5a21...9318 — No, $3,971 (46% win rate)
- 0x4fff...be78 — No, $3,487 (69% win rate)
- 0x7d26...a7d1 — No, $2,702 (55% win rate)
- 0x67cf...0bd9 — Yes, $2,647
- 0x83b8...c300 — Yes, $2,492
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