Part of: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

This prediction market asks whether the official CME settlement price for front-month Crude Oil (CL) futures will be $70 or lower on any trading day before the end of June 2026. It resolves on June 30, 2026, based on CME settlement data, with $1,174 in smart money tracked and 1 smart money signal currently observed. Recent alerts suggest notable traders have been active around oil downside and NO-position theses.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,286.

Categories: Commodities, NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Oil

Notable Trades

Repeat new-wallet crude thesis

A repeat-flagged newer wallet with early profits is building a larger cross-market crude oil thesis, though the individual trade is modest and not backed by a long resolved track record.

  • This newer bettor has been flagged 11 times and is already up $938 on resolved trades.
  • They have put about $39K across 3 related crude oil markets, suggesting a broader directional thesis.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are betting crude is unlikely to touch $70 by June 2026.

$1,174 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable 77% winner buys NO

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a strong 467-bet record and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $52.7K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 87¢, backing crude oil to stay above $70 through June 2026.
  • The market has tight 13¢/14¢ Yes pricing, so this looks like a deliberate position rather than a spread-driven fill.

$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

94% winner buys No

Sharp 94% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought No on a crude oil threshold market, with supporting cross-market positioning despite only moderate alert severity.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $17.7k lifetime.
  • They bought $3.8k of No at 82¢, adding to a cross-market oil thesis worth $5.4k.
  • The market has only $8.8k in 24h volume, so this is a meaningful bet in a quieter contract.

$3,794 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable oil thesis trader

A high-volume cross-market crude oil trader is adding to an 8-market thesis by fading the $70 low touch, with strong lifetime profits despite a modest hit rate.

  • This wallet is up $123.6K lifetime across $9.4M traded, showing it has made money despite winning only 42% of resolved bets.
  • The trader has positioned across 8 related crude oil markets with $91.3K total exposure, suggesting a deliberate oil-price thesis.
  • This trade sells Yes at 22¢, equivalent to buying No at 78¢ that crude does not settle at or below $70 by end of June.

$1,257 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%

Profitable 8-market oil thesis

A profitable wallet is building a broader oil-price thesis across 8 related markets, including a $4.8k buy of Yes at 20¢.

  • This wallet is up $267k lifetime and has put $76k across 8 related oil markets.
  • The 20¢ entry implies a 5x payout if crude oil settles at or below $70 before July 2026.
  • This is part of a broader macro position, not a one-off bet.

$4,844 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 42%

Repeat new wallet buys NO

A 23-day-old repeat large bettor is building a cross-market crude oil NO thesis, with $40k across three related markets and fresh buys near 79–80¢.

  • This new wallet has been repeatedly flagged for large bets, with $46.6k total across recent positions.
  • The bettor is expressing the same crude-oil thesis across 3 related markets, totaling about $40.3k.
  • They bought No around 80¢ as Yes odds have fallen 16.5 points over the past week.

$2,385 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

  • LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,906 | Wallet win rate: 65%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

  • LLM evaluation inconclusive

$2,643 | Wallet win rate: 100%

Pro oil macro bettor

A high-volume, historically profitable trader with a 78% win rate is building a consistent cross-market crude oil thesis by buying No at 71¢ across three related markets.

  • This bettor wins 78% of 1,022 resolved trades and is up $566k lifetime
  • They have put $17.8k across 3 related crude oil markets, showing a broader event view rather than a one-off bet
  • Buying No at 71¢ means backing oil to stay above $70, in line with a market that has already moved 6 points this week

$1,758 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

New whale pressing oil thesis

A 3-day-old wallet has already put nearly $29k across 6 flagged bets in related crude oil markets, and this $4.8k buy adds fresh directional conviction on a reasonably active market.

  • This 3-day-old wallet has already made 6 large flagged bets totaling about $29k
  • The trade adds a fresh $4.8k position in a related crude oil market, showing a clear repeat thesis
  • Bought at 74¢ in a market with $27k liquidity, so this is meaningful size rather than routine noise

$4,786 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe734...4f0c Yes, $147,603 (42% win rate)
  2. 0x8b87...3e8d No, $35,311 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x993c...6787 No, $31,500 (40% win rate)
  4. 0x4bbe...2cf3 No, $27,125 (78% win rate)
  5. 0x6dc4...6770 No, $25,897 (77% win rate)
  6. 0x9d73...216b No, $12,094 (74% win rate)
  7. 0x7961...1b1c No, $10,719 (94% win rate)
  8. 0xac29...36c7 Yes, $5,582
  9. 0x71ab...f015 Yes, $5,261 (63% win rate)
  10. 0x3b7e...23eb No, $5,000

Related Theses

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WTI swings wildly in May

Covers 14 related markets

Crude oil volatility explodes

Covers 10 related markets

Oil stays between $70-$150

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Covers 9 related markets

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

36dWill Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?$26,286 tracked10 signalsCommoditiesHide From NewNYMEX Crude Oil FuturesOil
Yes
21¢
No
80¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Price History — “No
93¢
83¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

4d ago

$1,174 on No at 87¢

87¢80¢7¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

4d ago

$1,740 on No at 87¢

87¢80¢7¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

12d ago

$3,794 on No at 82¢

82¢80¢2¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

14d ago

$1,257 on No at 78¢

78¢80¢2¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

24d ago

$4,844 on Yes at 20¢

20¢21¢1¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

25d ago

$2,385 on No at 80¢

80¢80¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

26d ago

$1,906

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

26d ago

$2,643

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

43d ago

$1,758 on No at 71¢

71¢80¢9¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

45d ago

$4,786 on No at 74¢

74¢80¢6¢

Related Theses