What is the David Farley Farrer by-election prediction market?

This market lets traders predict whether David Farley will win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

When is the Farrer by-election expected to take place?

The by-election for Farrer is expected to take place on May 9, 2026, which is also the listed resolution date for this market.

How will this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves according to the candidate who wins the Farrer by-election. If David Farley wins, the Farley outcome resolves yes; otherwise another candidate or “Other” may resolve depending on the final result.

What happens if voting does not take place or results are delayed?

If voting does not take place, or if the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $4,066 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this Farrer by-election market, including a recent alert tied to an 85% winner with a 19-wallet cluster.

Part of: Farrer By-Election Winner

Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

This Polymarket asks whether David Farley will win the expected May 9, 2026 by-election for Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. Follow the live odds on this page as traders price Farley’s chances; PolySpotter is tracking $4,066 in smart money and 1 signal for this market. It resolves to the winning candidate, or to “Other” if the vote does not occur or results are not definitive by March 31, 2027.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,066.

Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Australia, Elections, by election, Farrer, Main Election, rewards 100, 4.5, 100

Notable Trades

85% winner with 19-wallet cluster

Highly proven cross-market bettor with 85% win rate and a 19-wallet funded cluster bought Yes on a rising political market.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.29M lifetime.
The wallet is part of a 19-wallet funded cluster, suggesting coordinated conviction behind the Yes side.
They bought Yes at 82¢ and the market has already moved to 86¢, with odds up 12 points this week.

$4,066 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%