Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,810.
Categories: Culture, Tweet Markets, Rewards Automation 200 4.5 50, Politics
Notable Trades
Late-count momentum buyer
A moderately sized near-resolution BUY No caught a major move from 90¢ to 98¢ on a live-counting Elon tweet market, though the wallet’s negative lifetime P&L makes this more of a momentum/timing signal than a proven sharp-bettor alert.
- This bettor bought No at 90¢ about 54 minutes before resolution, and the market quickly moved to 98¢.
- The trade rode a large late price move as the tweet-count window was nearly over.
- The wallet wins 86% of resolved bets, but is down lifetime, so this is mainly a timing signal.
$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Momentum buyer into NO
Yes collapsed 62 points on a near-resolution, countable market, and this trader is continuing the move by effectively buying No at 82¢.
- Yes crashed from about 80¢ to 14¢ in a day, signaling a major market update.
- This trade effectively buys No at 82¢, ahead of a market ending shortly.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up about $5.2K across $263K traded.
$2,310 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $112,094
- 0x689a...779e — Yes, $19,168 (16% win rate)
- 0x77c8...bc8c — Yes, $13,377 (29% win rate)
- 0x2379...178e — Yes, $10,000
- 0xfd08...ee64 — No, $9,000 (93% win rate)
- 0x21b5...1db6 — No, $8,422 (90% win rate)
- 0x849c...4009 — Yes, $7,980
- 0x6be9...3493 — Yes, $6,900
- 0x8288...5519 — Yes, $6,895
- 0x0170...a17c — No, $4,527 (86% win rate)
