Part of: Spain General Election: ERC # of seats?
Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
This Polymarket market resolves Yes if Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) wins 6 or 7 seats in Spain’s Congress of Deputies in the 2026 general election, scheduled for November 29. Current odds are not included in the supplied market metadata; the listed resolution date is November 30, 2026, with a fallback rule if results are not definitive by November 30, 2027.
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,042.
Categories: Spain, World, Politics, Catalonia, Elections, Spain Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Large No bet on a thin market
A large follow-on No bet dominated the market's 24-hour volume and the price has since moved in the bettor's favor, though the wallet's record does not establish a clear edge.
- The $5,042 No buy was about 69% of the market's 24-hour volume.
- The bettor added to an existing No position, and No has since risen from 74¢ to about 84¢.
- The wallet has a long betting history, but its 64% win rate does not clearly beat its average winning price of 81¢.
$5,042 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x1ee9...197f — No, $6,834 (64% win rate)
- 0x7803...b7d2 — Yes, $5,000 (75% win rate)
- 0xfd39...9ec8 — Yes, $501
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $431
- 0x9efd...ad00 — Yes, $413 (51% win rate)
- 0xeed8...35f0 — Yes, $329 (16% win rate)
- 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $324
- 0x74aa...2c3f — Yes, $100
- 0x1284...3694 — Yes, $90
- 0xdf0e...c02b — Yes, $65 (34% win rate)
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