Part of: Fervo Energy IPO Closing Market Cap

Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?

This prediction market tracks whether Fervo Energy’s market capitalization will be between $7.0 billion and $8.5 billion at the market close on its first day of trading. If Fervo Energy does not complete an IPO by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO before July.” PolySpotter currently tracks $2,943 in smart money activity on this market, including one recent signal showing sharp wallet net Yes positioning.

This market will resolve based on Fervo Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 13 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,943.

Categories: rewards 200, 4.5, 20, Tech, Finance, IPOs, IPO

Notable Trades

Sharp wallet net Yes

Sharp 85%-win wallet put on a net Yes position while also buying the opposite side cheaply, suggesting both edge and possible spread capture in a very thin IPO-range market.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $4.7K lifetime.
  • They bought both sides below fair total cost, but the larger trade leaves them net long Yes.
  • The Yes entry at 32¢ has already moved to 48¢ in a thin market with only $3.1K liquidity.

$2,943 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x34b0...d620 Yes, $2,694 (85% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $1,492
  3. 0xf25c...732c No, $400
  4. 0x6f67...102c No, $143
  5. 0x2f9b...a68c No, $107
  6. 0x558f...1a56 No, $100 (73% win rate)
  7. 0xa3e2...fdf8 No, $73
  8. 0x3690...e16f No, $60
  9. 0xc4b2...9a9b No, $51 (87% win rate)
  10. 0x5136...0e4f No, $50

Related Theses

Fervo IPO valuation tops $7B

Covers 2 related markets

Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?

22hFervo Energy IPO Closing Market Cap$2,943 tracked1 signalrewards 200, 4.5, 20TechFinanceIPOsIPO
Yes
78¢
No
22¢

This market will resolve based on Fervo Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 13 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

Price History — “Yes
80¢
50¢
20¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?

3h ago

$2,943 on Yes at 32¢

32¢78¢46¢

Related Theses