Part of: Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?

This prediction market asks whether Google will own the AI model ranked #1 on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard with Style Control On when checked on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution is based on the Rank column at lmarena.ai, with the leading model’s owner determining the outcome. PolySpotter is tracking $2,118 in smart money activity and 1 recent smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,118.

Categories: AI, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, Big Tech, Tech

Notable Trades

Profitable 78% winner

Sharp-wallet override: a proven profitable bettor with 78% wins is buying No, despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 309 resolved trades and is up $22,087 lifetime.
  • They put $2.1K on No, larger than the market’s entire 24h volume.
  • Entry at 84¢ suggests a conservative but high-conviction bet against Google finishing #1.

$2,118 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $16,696
  2. 0xf2aa...21fb Yes, $3,775 (44% win rate)
  3. 0x0482...6b0a Yes, $3,431 (34% win rate)
  4. 0xa7d2...f954 Yes, $2,530
  5. 0xb89f...1c44 Yes, $2,285 (48% win rate)
  6. 0x2b9d...74f5 No, $1,590
  7. 0x80cf...614d Yes, $1,011
  8. 0xd49b...bdf9 Yes, $880 (67% win rate)
  9. 0xcda4...1d82 No, $843
  10. 0x6718...e623 No, $807

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Anthropic overtakes Google AI

Covers 2 related markets

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?

19dWhich company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)$2,118 tracked1 signalAIRewards 50, 4.5, 100Big TechTech
Yes
13¢
No
88¢

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Price History — “No
89¢
82¢
75¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?

2h ago

$2,118 on No at 84¢

84¢88¢4¢

Related Theses