Part of: Which company has best AI model end of June?

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,065.

Categories: Tech, Big Tech, GPT-5, Grok, OpenAI, AI

Notable Trades

81% winner buying Yes

Surface because a highly profitable 81% lifetime bettor is effectively buying Google Yes at 14¢ despite only a modest cross-market signal.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $141,595 lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Google Yes at 14¢, implying a long-shot position with about 7x payout if right.
  • They have placed $5,260 across 2 related AI-leaderboard markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable cross-market bettor

A highly experienced profitable wallet is taking a cross-market No position against Google leading AI rankings, though the signal is modest and the market is liquid.

  • This bettor has a long record: 33,352 resolved trades and $324k in lifetime profit.
  • They are betting across 2 related AI leaderboard markets, with nearly $7k positioned in the same event.
  • Buying No at 87¢ suggests a high-conviction view that Google will not hold the top model spot.

$2,190 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

91% winner exits Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a 91% winning bettor with positive lifetime P&L is exiting Google Yes, effectively taking No at 81¢, though this appears to be closing a prior losing Yes position rather than a fresh large short.

  • This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved trades and is up $2,326 lifetime.
  • They sold Google Yes at 19¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 81¢.
  • This looks like an exit from a prior Yes position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large bet.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 55343546, $606,784
  2. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 48636515, $35,138 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x2b9d...adc0 Outcome 48636515, $34,308 (50% win rate)
  4. 0x0562...9d66 Outcome 48636515, $24,999 (40% win rate)
  5. 0xa445...0286 Outcome 48636515, $23,977
  6. 0x1682...26ca Outcome 48636515, $20,935 (68% win rate)
  7. 0x22e4...ef1c Outcome 48636515, $18,561 (58% win rate)
  8. 0x0753...c6aa Outcome 48636515, $12,556
  9. 0x5ffb...5e4c Outcome 48636515, $11,507
  10. 0x0845...6b6f Outcome 48636515, $10,336 (70% win rate)

Related Theses

Türkiye avoids defeat

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Brazil-Japan match will happen

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Türkiye-US match gets played

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Japan-Sweden match will happen

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A traditional power wins World Cup

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Argentina will not win

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No deal by May

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MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June

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Iran avoids defeat vs New Zealand

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Germany-Paraguay match happens

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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

ResolvedWhich company has best AI model end of June?$5,065 tracked3 signalsTechBig TechGPT-5GrokOpenAIAI

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Notable Trades

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

43d ago

$1,376 on Yes at 14¢

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

45d ago

$2,190 on No at 87¢

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

62d ago

$1,500 on No at 81¢

Related Theses

Türkiye avoids defeat
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Brazil-Japan match will happen
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Türkiye-US match gets played
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Japan-Sweden match will happen
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A traditional power wins World Cup
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Argentina will not win
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No deal by May
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June
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MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoi…MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoi…
Iran avoids defeat vs New Zealand
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Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand e…Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15…Will New Zealand win on 2026-0…
Germany-Paraguay match happens
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Will Germany vs. Paraguay end …Will Germany win on 2026-06-29…Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-2…