Part of: GPT-6 released by…?

Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make GPT-6 publicly accessible by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes only if OpenAI clearly announces general-public access, including an open beta or rolling waitlist; closed beta and private access do not qualify. The market currently tracks $2,580 in smart money across one signal, with a recent trader scaling into No.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,580.

Categories: OpenAI, GPT-5, Big Tech, AI, Tech, sam altman, AI Releases

Notable Trades

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with a substantial history is adding $2,580 to an existing No position in an extremely thin market, though the 70% win rate is not independently exceptional against a 75% average winning entry price.

  • This trader has made $2.1M of resolved-market investments across 111 bets and is adding to an existing No position.
  • The $2,580 purchase was nearly nine times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a thin market.
  • No was bought at 51¢ and is now around 53¢, with a very wide spread creating execution risk.

$2,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb17d...59ae Outcome 41037281, $5,500 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x28b2...eb4f Outcome 41037281, $1,263 (69% win rate)
  3. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 41037281, $208
  4. 0xb41e...11fd Outcome 41037281, $106
  5. 0x8c07...2967 Outcome 41037281, $100
  6. 0x9456...4f9f Outcome 41037281, $37
  7. 0x510f...a43c Outcome 41037281, $30
  8. 0x0711...f03c Outcome 41037281, $20
  9. 0xb87f...f7d4 Outcome 41037281, $16
  10. 0x0275...b936 Outcome 41037281, $15

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Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?

40dGPT-6 released by…?$2,580 tracked1 signalOpenAIGPT-5Big TechAITechsam altmanAI Releases

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
97¢
64¢
30¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?

19d ago

$2,580 on No at 51¢

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