GPT-6 released by…?
9 signals across 4 markets · $28,195 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2025
This PolySpotter event tracks prediction-market odds on whether OpenAI will make GPT-6 publicly available, including through an open beta or rolling public waitlist. The market has seen a contrarian bet in a thin market, with $1,266 in tracked smart money across one signal.
Markets (4)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial trader scales into No
A serial cross-market trader with a substantial history is adding $2,580 to an existing No position in an extremely thin market, though the 70% win rate is not independently exceptional against a 75% average winning entry price.
$2,580Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 5.6 - Serial cross-market Yes bettor
A serial cross-market trader with a 70% win rate committed $7.3K to Yes amid a 2,498x volume spike and a major upward price breakout.
$7,318Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 5.5 - Serial cross-market GPT-6 bull
A serial cross-market trader with 111 resolved bets and 70% wins increased bullish GPT-6 exposure by selling No at an effective Yes price of 76¢, though the trade appears partly related to an existing position.
$2,581Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.7 - Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes
A serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets is selling Yes, and the market has since fallen 17 percentage points, providing meaningful though not exceptional directional evidence for No.
$2,321Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.5 - Serial cross-market Yes bettor
A serial cross-market trader with a 70% win rate committed $7.3K to Yes amid a 2,498x volume spike and a major upward price breakout.
$4,737Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.3 - Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes
A serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets is selling Yes, and the market has since fallen 17 percentage points, providing meaningful though not exceptional directional evidence for No.
$3,703Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.3 - Serial cross-market bettor sells Yes
A serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets is selling Yes, and the market has since fallen 17 percentage points, providing meaningful though not exceptional directional evidence for No.
$2,411Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.3 - Contrarian bet in a thin market
A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.
$1,278Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 2.5 - Contrarian bet in a thin market
A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.
$1,266Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 2.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x2b670a…b814$25,651 · 4 markets · 7 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x122cb9…fbed$2,544 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 62% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a GPT-6 release?
The live GPT-6 release odds are shown in the market prices on this page and can change as traders buy and sell outcome shares. The event currently contains one child market focused on whether GPT-6 will be released by December 31, 2026.
What is the GPT-6 prediction market asking?
The market asks whether GPT-6 will be launched and publicly accessible by the stated deadline. Public access may include an open beta or open rolling waitlist, while a closed beta or private access alone does not qualify.
What is smart money doing on the GPT-6 market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,266 in smart money across the event and one signal so far. The latest alert describes the activity as a contrarian bet in a thin market.
When does the GPT-6 Polymarket resolve?
The listed child market asks about a public GPT-6 release by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on OpenAI clearly announcing that the model is accessible to the general public under the market rules.