Part of: Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
This prediction market tracks whether Graham Platner will be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in the 2026 election cycle. It resolves based on the winner of the Maine Democratic Senate primary, with a listed resolution date of July 31, 2026; if no primary is held, the market resolves to “Other.” PolySpotter also tracks smart money activity on this market, including recent signals from high-win-rate political bettors.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,585.
Categories: Politics, Elections, US Election, Primaries, primary elections, Senate Primary, Democratic Primary, Maine Primary
Notable Trades
88% win-rate political bettor
A highly profitable serial political trader with an 88% win rate bought NO at 9¢ in a major Maine Senate primary market, making this a credible low-priced contrarian position worth following.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related political markets — 127 markets across 77 events with the same strong hit rate
- Buying NO at 9¢ means they think Platner’s nomination chances are even lower than the market implies
$2,389 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Perfect-record political bettor
A serial cross-market trader with a perfect 27-for-27 resolved record bought the favorite at 89¢, making this worth tracking despite the modest size and only one signal.
- This bettor is 27 for 27 on resolved markets and has made about $31.6k profit.
- They have traded across 33 events and more than $1.0M total, so this is not a random one-off bet.
- They bought at 89¢ in a liquid market, signaling confidence the favorite still has a little room to run.
$2,486 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
A serial cross-market trader with a perfect 22-0 resolved record just made a $4.7k buy in a low-activity Maine Senate primary market, suggesting this late-cycle political position is worth tracking despite the rich price.
- This bettor is 22-0 on resolved markets and has traded across 32 markets in 30 events
- The $4.7k buy was more than 2x this market's full 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market
- They paid 84¢ for Yes, signaling they see Graham Platner as a very likely nominee even after a 14-point weekly run-up
$4,711 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xbb04...648c — No, $299,445
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $144,677 (82% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $101,026
- 0x1c72...dfb6 — Yes, $90,714 (57% win rate)
- 0x242d...603a — Yes, $89,000
- 0x000d...758e — Yes, $88,817 (85% win rate)
- 0xa30e...49d5 — Yes, $78,668 (92% win rate)
- 0xaab9...a08d — No, $44,462 (59% win rate)
- 0x7919...72b2 — Yes, $43,368 (96% win rate)
- 0x15fd...cc95 — Yes, $31,068 (100% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal by May, not June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 3 related markets
