Part of: Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $38,794.
Categories: Elections, Politics, US Election, Primaries, primary elections, Democratic Primary, Michigan Primary, Senate Primary, August 4 Primaries
Notable Trades
Serial trader scaling into No
A profitable serial trader added to an existing No position during an extreme pre-event volume spike, though the trader's win rate does not demonstrate a clear pricing edge.
- This trader is up $146,852 across 1,710 resolved bets with a 68% win rate.
- The $2,530 No purchase adds to an existing position as market activity surged to 1,670 times its historical average.
- The entry was 84¢, implying the trader values No at roughly 94¢ or higher, but this is an addition rather than a fresh position.
$2,530 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable wallets scaling into No
Three wallets made a coordinated $14.6K No purchase during an extreme volume spike, led by two profitable traders with strong historical win rates.
- Three wallets bought No for a combined $14,553 during a 1,670x historical volume spike.
- Two participants have strong records: 74% wins with $147K profit and 68% wins with $147K profit.
- The trades entered No at 84¢, while the market has since moved to 86%, reinforcing the direction.
$14,553 on No
84% win-rate serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and 170 resolved positions made a fresh $3,692 bet against Haley Stevens.
- This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and is up $1.12 million.
- They placed a fresh $3,692 No bet at 73¢, signaling strong conviction Haley Stevens will not win.
- The wallet has traded across 45 events and 60 markets, providing a substantial record beyond this single position.
$5,837 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Proven million-dollar bettor buys No
A highly profitable, extensively tracked bettor placed a large No position, though the simultaneous Yes purchase makes the overall trade direction less clean.
- This bettor wins 84% of 171 resolved positions and is up $1.14 million lifetime.
- They bought $5,837 of No at 84¢, a meaningful position in a market with 16% Yes odds.
- A simultaneous $6,345 Yes purchase creates conflicting exposure, so the No thesis is less clear than the track record suggests.
$12,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
84% win-rate serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and 170 resolved positions made a fresh $3,692 bet against Haley Stevens.
- This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and is up $1.12 million.
- They placed a fresh $3,692 No bet at 73¢, signaling strong conviction Haley Stevens will not win.
- The wallet has traded across 45 events and 60 markets, providing a substantial record beyond this single position.
$3,692 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 10532560, $146,218
- 0x7072...69ac — Outcome 40419121, $49,057
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 40419121, $42,136 (70% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Outcome 40419121, $22,901 (86% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 40419121, $22,609 (72% win rate)
- 0xef53...9ef1 — Outcome 40419121, $17,906 (55% win rate)
- 0x1a2f...647a — Outcome 40419121, $13,164 (67% win rate)
- 0x3151...4393 — Outcome 40419121, $10,000 (87% win rate)
- 0xb8cd...02cd — Outcome 40419121, $10,000
- 0xf118...1f58 — Outcome 40419121, $8,807
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