Part of: How high will inflation get in 2026?
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
This market asks whether U.S. CPI inflation will rise by more than 5% over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026, based on official Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI reports. It resolves by the end of 2026 after the relevant BLS data is released. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,125 in smart money activity, with a recent signal showing an 83% winner buying No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,125.
Categories: Inflation, Macro Indicators, Economy, Politics
Notable Trades
83% winner buying No
Sharp wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making even a modest buy on No worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $13.3K lifetime.
- They bought No at 75¢, matching a view that inflation above 5% in 2026 is unlikely.
- Their historical wins came at average 55¢ odds, suggesting they have beaten market pricing before.
$1,125 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Top Holders
- 0x3b01...2026 — Yes, $23,000 (33% win rate)
- 0xe7a3...e60a — Yes, $18,318
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $17,372 (48% win rate)
- 0xa0d3...5b5e — No, $15,863 (52% win rate)
- 0xff06...2f60 — Yes, $11,100 (63% win rate)
- 0xf27d...e6d3 — Yes, $5,870 (24% win rate)
- 0x2ed8...93d4 — No, $5,341 (58% win rate)
- 0x1d5f...634d — No, $5,009 (76% win rate)
- 0x1f85...a51b — No, $2,524 (71% win rate)
- 0x856b...fd64 — No, $2,260 (67% win rate)
