Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $33,199.

Notable Trades

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

Three wallets hit the same NO side at the exact same second for $33k total during a huge volume spike, a coordinated move large enough to matter versus market liquidity.

  • Three wallets bought NO at the exact same second for $33.2k total, showing coordinated conviction
  • The burst came during a 1,130x volume spike, strong evidence that fresh money moved this market
  • Their 79¢ entry is only slightly above the 21¢ YES price, signaling a view that 4-country strikes are less likely than the market implies

$33,199 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xb3e4...1518 Yes, $42,131
  2. 0x0742...2ba8 No, $15,912
  3. 0x23c8...3577 No, $13,150
  4. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $10,699
  5. 0x8966...9131 No, $8,477 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x67f7...4881 No, $3,456 (75% win rate)
  7. 0x5aa1...d9b7 Yes, $2,756
  8. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $1,819
  9. 0xec58...dd47 No, $1,018 (57% win rate)
  10. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $936 (46% win rate)

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

275d$33,199 tracked1 signalIsraelIranMiddle EastPoliticsGeopoliticsWorld
Yes
20¢
No
80¢

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

2h ago

$33,199 on No at 79¢

79¢80¢1¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | PolySpotter