Part of: Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

This prediction market tracks whether Iván Cepeda Castro will win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, currently scheduled for June 21, 2026. The market resolves after the runoff results are known, with final resolution expected by June 22, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,147 in smart money activity and 1 recent smart money signal for this market.

The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,147.

Categories: Colombia, Elections, Politics, Global Elections, rewards 200, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

A profitable serial cross-market trader placed a bet 6.6x larger than the market’s 24h volume on the No side of a very quiet Colombian election market.

  • This bettor is up $377K lifetime across more than 2,500 resolved trades.
  • The $1.1K No buy was 6.6x the market’s entire 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
  • They have traded across 43 markets and 32 events, suggesting an experienced political/event bettor.

$1,147 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $6,652
  2. 0x16da...05c0 Yes, $3,938
  3. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $1,466 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x9163...82ae Yes, $300
  5. 0x3078...0389 Yes, $241
  6. 0x7495...7fcf Yes, $164
  7. 0x2106...4dea Yes, $150 (9% win rate)
  8. 0xc2e3...de36 Yes, $113
  9. 0xd0dd...ec77 Yes, $109
  10. 0x758b...0a1c Yes, $70

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Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

12dColombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory$1,147 tracked1 signalColombiaElectionsPoliticsGlobal Electionsrewards 200, 4.5, 20
Yes
12¢
No
88¢

The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “No
90¢
71¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

1h ago

$1,147 on No at 88¢

88¢88¢

Related Theses