Part of: Bahia Governor Election Winner
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
This prediction market asks whether Jerônimo Rodrigues will win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election in Brazil, scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if needed. PolySpotter tracks Polymarket odds and smart money activity for this race, including $1,800 in tracked smart money and 1 signal so far. The market resolves based on the official winner of the election, excluding any temporary or interim governors appointed before the vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,800.
Categories: Brazil, Elections, Global Elections, Main Election, Politics
Notable Trades
New wallet in thin market
Brand-new wallet made a $1.8k Yes buy in a very quiet Brazil gubernatorial market, nearly 7x the prior 24h volume, though it has no track record.
- A wallet created just 3.5 hours earlier put $1.8k on Yes.
- That single buy was nearly 7x this market’s 24h volume.
- They paid 70¢ while the market is now around 54¢, signaling strong conviction but no proven record.
$1,800 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,958
- 0x01ab...e68f — Yes, $2,569
- 0x8b9e...6838 — Yes, $1,049 (53% win rate)
- 0x30fc...510d — No, $1,000
- 0xc8df...4b48 — Yes, $790
- 0xe154...0b7f — No, $750 (10% win rate)
- 0xee16...16a2 — Yes, $230
- 0x2c0b...ef0c — Yes, $194 (75% win rate)
- 0x3767...5e7c — No, $147
- 0x76f9...f701 — Yes, $140 (88% win rate)
