Part of: AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,860.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, Republican Primary, House Primary, Arizona Primary, July 21 Primaries, US Election

Notable Trades

Serial political cross-market bettor

Experienced cross-market political bettor is adding to a No position on a very thin AZ-01 primary market while pairing it with another nominee bet.

This bettor has traded across 45 events and is up about $42.9K lifetime.
The No buy was nearly 3x this market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
They paired this with another AZ-01 nominee bet, suggesting a broader primary thesis.

$3,860 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 65131961, $9,718
0xc2e5...b3a5 — Outcome 11475084, $3,417 (66% win rate)
0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 11475084, $1,719 (94% win rate)
0xadb5...e421 — Outcome 11475084, $1,000
0x38e5...95e7 — Outcome 11475084, $803 (75% win rate)
0x661d...4dc6 — Outcome 11475084, $587 (68% win rate)
0x403d...b04d — Outcome 11475084, $300
0xcdbf...1926 — Outcome 11475084, $275
0xbcd6...f3c8 — Outcome 11475084, $201 (100% win rate)
0x13a9...e573 — Outcome 11475084, $200

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Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

ResolvedAZ-01 Republican Primary Winner$3,860 tracked1 signalPoliticsElectionsPrimariesprimary electionsRepublican PrimaryHouse PrimaryArizona PrimaryJuly 21 PrimariesUS Election

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Price History — “No”

96¢

91¢

87¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction