What is the Karoline Leavitt Polymarket about?

This market predicts whether Karoline Leavitt will leave the Trump administration before 2027. A departure can include a resignation, removal, or otherwise ceasing to be a member of the administration.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether Karoline Leavitt’s departure is announced by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying departure is announced by then, it resolves to “No.”

What would make the market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to “Yes” if it is announced that Karoline Leavitt will resign, be removed, or leave the Trump administration before the deadline. The market can resolve immediately on the announcement, even if the departure takes effect later.

What would make the market resolve to No?

It resolves to “No” if Karoline Leavitt remains in the Trump administration through the deadline and there is no qualifying announcement of resignation, removal, or departure before 2027.

How much smart money is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $1,398 in total smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal, including activity from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.

Part of: Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Karoline Leavitt will leave, resign from, be removed from, or otherwise cease to be part of the Trump administration before 2027. It resolves “Yes” if an announcement of her departure occurs by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,398 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,398.

Categories: Trump, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No in a quiet personnel market with a trade equal to 67% of 24h volume.

This bettor wins 70% of resolved bets and is up $44k lifetime.
They have traded across 27 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
This No buy was 67% of the market’s 24h volume, and the price has already moved from 69¢ to 74¢.

$1,398 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%