Part of: Secret Harbour State By-Election Winner

Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,006.

Categories: Politics, Australia, Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props, Secret Harbour

Notable Trades

Serial sharp bettor buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and over $1 million in P&L made a sizable contrarian No position in a thinly traded election market.

This bettor wins 82% of 228 resolved trades and is up $1.06 million lifetime.
The $1,006 No purchase is meaningful in a market with only $7,949 in 24-hour volume and a wide spread.
The trader has positioned across 99 markets and 73 events, indicating an established repeatable strategy rather than a one-off bet.

$1,006 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 29669830, $9,292
0x2200...0f2d — Outcome 29669830, $8,510 (32% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 29669830, $7,000 (82% win rate)
0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 29669830, $4,500
0xd24b...ef76 — Outcome 29669830, $2,205 (74% win rate)
0x215a...254c — Outcome 29669830, $1,667
0x8f0b...eb6d — Outcome 29669830, $1,366 (50% win rate)
0x52eb...67ac — Outcome 29669830, $409 (79% win rate)
0xb8ad...ff58 — Outcome 29669830, $300
0x5e55...9a76 — Outcome 29669830, $251

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Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?

ResolvedSecret Harbour State By-Election Winner$1,006 tracked1 signalPoliticsAustraliaElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election PropsSecret Harbour

A by-election for the Western Australia state legislative constituency of Secret Harbour is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Western Australian Electoral Commission (https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/).

Price History — “No”

89¢

73¢

56¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction