Part of: María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,838.
Categories: Trump-Machado, Politics, Trump, Venezuela
Notable Trades
Proven bettor buying favorite
Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a strong 269-bet record and is adding a 90¢ No position larger than recent market activity.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $44,876 lifetime.
- Their $1.2K No buy was about 2x the market’s recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 90¢ is a low-upside favorite, but the track record makes the position worth following.
$1,243 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor put $5,000 on No in a quiet Venezuela politics market, with the trade nearly 3x recent daily volume.
- This bettor has won 70% of 327 resolved trades and is up about $29.9k lifetime.
- The $5,000 No buy was nearly 3x the market’s recent daily volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- They have traded across 48 related events, suggesting a repeat cross-market thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable trader flips No
Experienced, profitable cross-market trader flipped from Yes to a fresh No position with a large bet on a relatively quiet political market.
- This bettor is up $149k lifetime and has traded across 106 markets.
- They flipped from a prior Yes position into $3.4k of No at 77¢.
- The bet was nearly 9x the detected recent volume, suggesting strong conviction in a quiet market.
$3,398 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is betting against Machado entering Venezuela, with related positions across 3 markets in the same event.
- This bettor has a long record: 64% wins across 1,459 resolved trades and about $197k lifetime profit.
- They are active across related markets, with $10.5k positioned in 3 markets tied to this event.
- Selling Yes at 27¢ is effectively a No bet around 73¢, aligning with the market’s current 74% No pricing.
$1,775 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is taking the No side on a quiet Venezuela politics market, with related positioning across the same event.
- This bettor has a long record: 64% wins across 1,451 resolved markets and $193K lifetime profit.
- They are an experienced cross-market trader, with 348 markets traded across 152 events.
- Selling Yes at 27¢ is effectively buying No at 73¢, against a market currently pricing No around 75¢.
$1,476 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
94% winner buying YES
Proven high-edge wallet with a 94% resolved win rate bought Yes in a politically plausible information market, though size is modest and price has moved against them.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $74.9K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 20¢, while the market is now around 15¢.
- Their long track record suggests this is worth watching despite the modest $1K size.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable wallet on No thesis
Moderately notable political-market positioning: a profitable wallet has put nearly $35k across related markets and added $7k to the favored No side in a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor is modestly profitable and has placed $34.9k across related María Corina Machado markets.
- The $7k No buy was large for this market, equal to 84% of the last 24 hours’ volume.
- They bought No at 90¢ while Yes odds have fallen 18 points this week, matching the recent market move.
$7,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp cross-market political bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a large profitable history bought Yes after a sharp 32-point collapse, creating a credible mean-reversion or thesis-driven entry in a moderately active political market.
- This bettor has won 68% of 1,309 resolved trades and is up about $230k overall.
- They bought after Yes fell 32 points beyond its prior range, entering at 21¢ while the market was sliding.
- This single $1.8k buy was bigger than the market's earlier 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a niche political market.
$1,764 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
73% winner in thin market
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 73% win rate made a market-moving buy into a very quiet Venezuela political market, suggesting fresh conviction on No.
- This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up about $338k across 653 bets
- They bought No in a market with just $109 of 24-hour volume, and this single $1.2k trade was about 11x the day's flow
- They trade heavily across related event markets, with nearly $31.9k placed across 3 markets on this same topic
$1,183 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10850361, $19,180 (69% win rate)
- 0x0b49...f2df — Outcome 10850361, $3,375
- 0x0939...b5a6 — Outcome 10850361, $3,126
- 0x3269...1e7c — Outcome 10850361, $2,920 (43% win rate)
- 0x032b...15dc — Outcome 10850361, $2,438
- 0xed2e...3e52 — Outcome 10850361, $1,059
- 0xb35d...b0f0 — Outcome 10850361, $1,024
- 0x6d68...11bc — Outcome 10850361, $931
- 0x1994...b4e5 — Outcome 10850361, $891
- 0xc1d0...45df — Outcome 10850361, $797
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