Part of: NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,954.
Categories: Elections, Politics, Trump, primary elections, New York Primary, House Primary, Democratic Primary, June 23 Primaries
Notable Trades
Profitable sharp flips Yes
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with 1,127 resolved bets and a 79% win rate is flipping into Yes on a political primary market.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $73.7k lifetime.
- They closed a prior No position and are now buying Yes, suggesting a clear shift in view.
- Entry at 67¢ follows a 9-point one-day move, with the market now pricing Lasher as the favorite.
$1,997 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $442K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 49¢ after the market fell 12.5% over the past day.
- Entry near even odds suggests a clear contrarian view on the NY-12 primary.
$3,679 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $442K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 49¢ after the market fell 12.5% over the past day.
- Entry near even odds suggests a clear contrarian view on the NY-12 primary.
$1,042 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $442K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 49¢ after the market fell 12.5% over the past day.
- Entry near even odds suggests a clear contrarian view on the NY-12 primary.
$1,813 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $442K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 49¢ after the market fell 12.5% over the past day.
- Entry near even odds suggests a clear contrarian view on the NY-12 primary.
$6,462 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $442K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 49¢ after the market fell 12.5% over the past day.
- Entry near even odds suggests a clear contrarian view on the NY-12 primary.
$1,167 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
80% winner buying NO
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on Micah Lasher at 39¢, and the position has already moved to 44¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
- They are a major serial political trader, active across 142 events and $5.6M in cross-market volume.
- Bought No at 39¢, and the market has already moved to 44¢.
$1,795 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
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