NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
12 signals across 2 markets · $27,402 tracked · resolves Jun 23, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds for the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary winner, focused on whether Micah Lasher becomes the Democratic nominee for New York’s 12th congressional district. PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,795 in smart money activity, including a recent signal showing an 80% winner buying NO on Lasher.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Elite cross-market political bettor
Sharp, highly profitable political bettor bought Yes at 41¢ before a sharp move to 55¢, with strong cross-market history and an 80% win rate.
$2,586Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.0 - Elite cross-market political bettor
Sharp, highly profitable political bettor bought Yes at 41¢ before a sharp move to 55¢, with strong cross-market history and an 80% win rate.
$1,929Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.0 - 82% winner buying YES
Highly profitable 82% lifetime winner and serial cross-market bettor is taking a fresh YES position in a political primary market.
$1,250Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - 80% winner buying NO
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on Micah Lasher at 39¢, and the position has already moved to 44¢.
$1,795Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 6.0 - Sharp political bettor buys NO
Sharp profitable wallet with an 83% resolved win rate is buying No in a niche political primary while also positioning across related NY-12 markets.
$1,289Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 5.0 - Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
$6,462Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 5.0 - Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
$3,679Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 5.0 - Sharp political bettor buys NO
Sharp profitable wallet with an 83% resolved win rate is buying No in a niche political primary while also positioning across related NY-12 markets.
$2,395Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 5.0 - Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
$1,813Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 5.0 - Sharp bettor buying the dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate and large positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing despite the modest alert score.
$1,042Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 5.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7bc141…8db4$17,846 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$6,309 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xc68482…2228$1,997 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$1,250 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the NY-12 Democratic primary odds on Polymarket?
The event centers on whether Micah Lasher will win the Democratic nomination for NY-12 in the 2026 House primary. The live Polymarket price reflects traders’ implied odds as new information, campaign developments, and betting activity come in.
What is the smart money doing in the NY-12 Democratic primary market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,795 in smart money activity across this event. The latest highlighted signal was an 80% winner buying NO, suggesting at least one successful trader is betting against Micah Lasher becoming the nominee.
When does the NY-12 Democratic primary market resolve?
The Democratic primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The market is expected to resolve based on official Democratic sources naming the nominee, with an outside resolution deadline of November 3, 2026 if no nominee is announced.
Who wins if Micah Lasher is not the Democratic nominee?
For this event’s child market, a NO outcome wins if Micah Lasher does not become the Democratic nominee for NY-12. If no nominee is announced by the stated deadline, the market rules say it resolves to Other at the event level.
How should I use PolySpotter for NY-12 primary prediction markets?
Use PolySpotter to monitor live Polymarket odds alongside smart money signals, such as large buys or trades from historically profitable wallets. These signals can help show whether experienced traders are backing or fading a candidate.