Part of: "Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $31,781.

Categories: Movies, box office, Culture, Rewards 300 4.5 50

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Moderately proven profitable wallet is taking the No side on a fast-moving movie box-office market, with cross-market positioning and a 70% resolved win record.

This bettor is up $21.9K across 61 resolved bets, showing a meaningful track record.
They are taking the opposite side after Yes jumped 43% in a day, effectively buying No at 50¢.
The wallet has positions across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader box-office thesis.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable cluster fading rally

Four profitable, high-volume box-office traders sold Yes together at 80¢ after a sharp rally and 102x volume spike, creating a coordinated No-side signal.

Four wallets with positive lifetime profits sold Yes at 80¢, effectively backing No at 20¢.
One trader has covered 267 events and 448 markets, with $1.0M traded and a 67% win rate.
The market just saw a 102x volume spike and Yes jumped 35% in a day, so this looks like a coordinated fade of the rally.

$15,115 on No

Profitable serial trader fades favorite

Serial high-volume cross-market trader with strong lifetime profit bought No during a sharp move despite the market still pricing Yes as highly likely.

This bettor is up $512K lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved bets.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $6.2M in detected activity across 73 events.
They bought No at 12¢ during a fast price move, implying a contrarian view against the 92% Yes market price.

$1,827 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Moderately sharp, profitable wallet is adding a cross-market box office thesis and drove a quick Yes price move despite the market being down on the day.

This bettor has won 70% of 61 resolved bets and is up about $21.9K lifetime.
They are betting across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader box-office thesis rather than a one-off trade.
This buy helped push Yes up 18 points in under 3 minutes, with entry at 38¢ implying meaningful upside if they are right.

$1,951 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable new box-office whale

A 10-day-old wallet with early profit and repeat large-bet flags is taking a sizable, somewhat hedged position across the Michael box-office event, with the clearest copyable leg equivalent to buying Yes around 44¢.

This 10-day-old wallet has already placed 8 positions and is up $1,637 despite being new.
Repeat large-bet flags total $5,599, suggesting this is not a one-off wager.
The clearest leg is selling No at 56¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 44¢ while market odds are near 38%.

$4,479 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%

3-wallet Yes momentum

Three profitable wallets bought $7.4K of Yes and pushed a thin box-office market up 27 points, showing coordinated momentum worth tracking.

Three bettors put $7.4K on Yes, more than the market’s displayed liquidity.
The Yes price jumped from around 40¢ to 64¢ in one day, showing strong one-way momentum.
All three wallets are lifetime profitable, including one up $21.8K with a 70% record.

$7,410 on Yes