Part of: "Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $31,781.
Categories: Movies, box office, Culture, Rewards 300 4.5 50
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
Moderately proven profitable wallet is taking the No side on a fast-moving movie box-office market, with cross-market positioning and a 70% resolved win record.
- This bettor is up $21.9K across 61 resolved bets, showing a meaningful track record.
- They are taking the opposite side after Yes jumped 43% in a day, effectively buying No at 50¢.
- The wallet has positions across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader box-office thesis.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable cluster fading rally
Four profitable, high-volume box-office traders sold Yes together at 80¢ after a sharp rally and 102x volume spike, creating a coordinated No-side signal.
- Four wallets with positive lifetime profits sold Yes at 80¢, effectively backing No at 20¢.
- One trader has covered 267 events and 448 markets, with $1.0M traded and a 67% win rate.
- The market just saw a 102x volume spike and Yes jumped 35% in a day, so this looks like a coordinated fade of the rally.
$15,115 on No
Profitable serial trader fades favorite
Serial high-volume cross-market trader with strong lifetime profit bought No during a sharp move despite the market still pricing Yes as highly likely.
- This bettor is up $512K lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $6.2M in detected activity across 73 events.
- They bought No at 12¢ during a fast price move, implying a contrarian view against the 92% Yes market price.
$1,827 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Moderately sharp, profitable wallet is adding a cross-market box office thesis and drove a quick Yes price move despite the market being down on the day.
- This bettor has won 70% of 61 resolved bets and is up about $21.9K lifetime.
- They are betting across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader box-office thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This buy helped push Yes up 18 points in under 3 minutes, with entry at 38¢ implying meaningful upside if they are right.
$1,951 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable new box-office whale
A 10-day-old wallet with early profit and repeat large-bet flags is taking a sizable, somewhat hedged position across the Michael box-office event, with the clearest copyable leg equivalent to buying Yes around 44¢.
- This 10-day-old wallet has already placed 8 positions and is up $1,637 despite being new.
- Repeat large-bet flags total $5,599, suggesting this is not a one-off wager.
- The clearest leg is selling No at 56¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 44¢ while market odds are near 38%.
$4,479 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%
3-wallet Yes momentum
Three profitable wallets bought $7.4K of Yes and pushed a thin box-office market up 27 points, showing coordinated momentum worth tracking.
- Three bettors put $7.4K on Yes, more than the market’s displayed liquidity.
- The Yes price jumped from around 40¢ to 64¢ in one day, showing strong one-way momentum.
- All three wallets are lifetime profitable, including one up $21.8K with a 70% record.
$7,410 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 48556793, $32,975
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 69380747, $4,000 (48% win rate)
- 0xf2f5...137e — Outcome 69380747, $2,091
- 0xb57a...b8c3 — Outcome 69380747, $1,689 (76% win rate)
- 0xb06a...52f5 — Outcome 69380747, $905
- 0xe9ce...9811 — Outcome 69380747, $599
- 0x6bca...b60a — Outcome 69380747, $484
- 0x33f8...c5e4 — Outcome 69380747, $425 (49% win rate)
- 0xd53b...fc94 — Outcome 69380747, $397
- 0xb413...1cb7 — Outcome 69380747, $314
Related Theses
US-Iran deal by late May
Covers 6 related markets
Raman and Pratt won’t win
Covers 2 related markets
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June
Covers 3 related markets
Mandalorian opens below $112M
Covers 2 related markets
Michael tops 35m weekend
Covers 2 related markets
