Part of: Baja California Congress Election Winner

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?

This Polymarket market asks whether Morena will win more seats than any other party in Baja California’s 25-member state Congress in the June 6, 2027 election. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data; the market is scheduled to resolve by June 7, 2027 UTC, based on the seat count and, if needed, valid votes.

Legislative elections to elect the 25 members of the Congress of the State of Baja California are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Baja California as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Baja California and Mexico, including the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California (https://ieebc.mx/).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,793.

Categories: Mexico, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Mexico Election, Global Elections

Notable Trades

New wallet repeatedly backing Yes

A brand-new wallet has repeatedly committed over $5,500 to Yes, including an additional $1,793 in a thinly traded election market, though it has no resolved track record.

  • A wallet less than an hour old has flagged $5,566 across three positions and added another $1,793 to Yes.
  • The market has had no reported 24-hour volume, making this a notable commitment in a thinly traded election market.
  • The wallet has no resolved positions to establish a track record; its existing Yes position makes this an add-on rather than a first entry.

$1,793 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8314...0b88 — Yes, $2,730 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x7803...b7d2 — No, $1,080 (75% win rate)
  3. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $961
  4. 0xfd39...9ec8 — No, $500
  5. 0xb8ad...ff58 — Yes, $100
  6. 0xd218...b5c9 — No, $100 (49% win rate)
  7. 0xe550...6f6e — No, $100
  8. 0xad53...ef24 — No, $63
  9. 0xe8c4...ea5c — No, $50
  10. 0x24bf...b12e — Yes, $40

Related Theses

Neither company joins the list

Covers 2 related markets

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?

Baja California Congress Election Winner$1,793 tracked1 signalMexicoPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionMexico ElectionGlobal Elections
Yes
90¢
No
10¢

Legislative elections to elect the 25 members of the Congress of the State of Baja California are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Baja California as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Baja California and Mexico, including the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California (https://ieebc.mx/).

Price History — “Yes”
92¢
86¢
81¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?

2026-10-19 23:34 UTC

$1,793 on Yes at 66¢

66¢→90¢↑24¢

Related Theses