Part of: Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?

This prediction market asks whether Nigel Farage will win the expected 2026 Clacton by-election by at least 60 percentage points over the second-place candidate. It resolves using the difference between the top two candidates’ shares of valid votes, with resolution scheduled by June 30, 2027; current market odds are not provided in the supplied data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,403.

Categories: UK, Clacton, Politics, Elections, UK Elections, UK By-Elections, United Kingdome, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Serial bettor makes concentrated No bet

A serial cross-market bettor with a strong lifetime record made a concentrated $4.4K No bet that represented 68% of recent volume and coincided with a sharp price move.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 96 resolved trades and is up $868K lifetime.
  • The $4,403 No position represented 68% of the market’s 24-hour volume in a relatively thin order book.
  • No has risen from the 40¢ entry to about 48¢, suggesting the market is moving in the bettor’s direction.

$4,403 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe7b3...2b3a Outcome 91626595, $31,372 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 55035480, $11,039
  3. 0xa2ac...7f76 Outcome 91626595, $9,169 (76% win rate)
  4. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 91626595, $2,914
  5. 0x764b...6bad Outcome 91626595, $1,076
  6. 0x215a...254c Outcome 91626595, $1,024
  7. 0x9719...a9f0 Outcome 91626595, $1,000
  8. 0x9a8d...dbba Outcome 91626595, $1,000
  9. 0xdb97...eee8 Outcome 91626595, $945 (75% win rate)
  10. 0x3879...d8c3 Outcome 91626595, $900

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Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?

280dClacton by-election: Margin of Victory$4,403 tracked1 signalUKClactonPoliticsElectionsUK ElectionsUK By-ElectionsUnited KingdomeGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “Yes
65¢
40¢
14¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?

40d ago

$4,403 on No at 40¢

Related Theses