Part of: Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?
This prediction market asks whether Nigel Farage will win the expected 2026 Clacton by-election by at least 60 percentage points over the second-place candidate. It resolves using the difference between the top two candidates’ shares of valid votes, with resolution scheduled by June 30, 2027; current market odds are not provided in the supplied data.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,403.
Categories: UK, Clacton, Politics, Elections, UK Elections, UK By-Elections, United Kingdome, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Serial bettor makes concentrated No bet
A serial cross-market bettor with a strong lifetime record made a concentrated $4.4K No bet that represented 68% of recent volume and coincided with a sharp price move.
- This bettor has won 68% of 96 resolved trades and is up $868K lifetime.
- The $4,403 No position represented 68% of the market’s 24-hour volume in a relatively thin order book.
- No has risen from the 40¢ entry to about 48¢, suggesting the market is moving in the bettor’s direction.
$4,403 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0xe7b3...2b3a — Outcome 91626595, $31,372 (100% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 55035480, $11,039
- 0xa2ac...7f76 — Outcome 91626595, $9,169 (76% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 91626595, $2,914
- 0x764b...6bad — Outcome 91626595, $1,076
- 0x215a...254c — Outcome 91626595, $1,024
- 0x9719...a9f0 — Outcome 91626595, $1,000
- 0x9a8d...dbba — Outcome 91626595, $1,000
- 0xdb97...eee8 — Outcome 91626595, $945 (75% win rate)
- 0x3879...d8c3 — Outcome 91626595, $900
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