Part of: Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
This prediction market tracks whether Nithya Raman will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Live odds may change as the June 2 primary and potential November 3 runoff approach; the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, based on the confirmed election winner.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $85,932.
Categories: mayor, Politics, US Election, Elections, Los Angeles, Mayoral Elections, LA, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, LA Mayor, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
Serial sharp exiting Yes
A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor exited a Yes position, though the trade appears partly to be routine profit-taking rather than a fresh No bet.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,478 resolved positions and is up $777,549 lifetime.
- The trader sold Yes after entering around 30¢, signaling reduced confidence in Raman winning.
- The position was already held and closed, so this is weaker copy evidence than a fresh No purchase.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial sharp exiting Yes
A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor exited a Yes position, though the trade appears partly to be routine profit-taking rather than a fresh No bet.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,478 resolved positions and is up $777,549 lifetime.
- The trader sold Yes after entering around 30¢, signaling reduced confidence in Raman winning.
- The position was already held and closed, so this is weaker copy evidence than a fresh No purchase.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial sharp exiting Yes
A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor exited a Yes position, though the trade appears partly to be routine profit-taking rather than a fresh No bet.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,478 resolved positions and is up $777,549 lifetime.
- The trader sold Yes after entering around 30¢, signaling reduced confidence in Raman winning.
- The position was already held and closed, so this is weaker copy evidence than a fresh No purchase.
$1,111 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial sharp exiting Yes
A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor exited a Yes position, though the trade appears partly to be routine profit-taking rather than a fresh No bet.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,478 resolved positions and is up $777,549 lifetime.
- The trader sold Yes after entering around 30¢, signaling reduced confidence in Raman winning.
- The position was already held and closed, so this is weaker copy evidence than a fresh No purchase.
$1,794 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Four-wallet Yes conviction cluster
Four wallets concentrated $15,768 into Yes, including profitable high-volume bettors adding to existing positions amid a 24.8x volume spike.
- Four wallets committed $15,768 to Yes, with three buying and one converting a No sale into equivalent Yes exposure.
- The flow includes two profitable bettors with 1,000-plus resolved trades and a third wallet adding to an existing position.
- Trading volume was 24.8 times its historical average, while Yes moved up roughly 2 percentage points over the week.
$15,768 on Yes
Profitable cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $252k profit is adding to a larger No position while also trading related LA mayoral markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $252k lifetime.
- They already have $26.7k on No here and just added more at 61¢.
- They are trading across 2 related LA mayoral markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$17,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $252k profit is adding to a larger No position while also trading related LA mayoral markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $252k lifetime.
- They already have $26.7k on No here and just added more at 61¢.
- They are trading across 2 related LA mayoral markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$6,949 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $252k profit is adding to a larger No position while also trading related LA mayoral markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $252k lifetime.
- They already have $26.7k on No here and just added more at 61¢.
- They are trading across 2 related LA mayoral markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$3,932 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial politics sharp
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on Raman with an 80% resolved win rate and $3.9M lifetime profit.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.9M lifetime.
- They are a seasoned cross-market trader with activity across 139 events and $5.6M in flagged volume.
- Buying No at 63¢ suggests conviction against Raman despite a liquid market and tight spread.
$3,378 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
85% win-rate political whale
A highly proven cross-market trader with an 85% win rate and +$1.38M lifetime P&L bought $12.4K of Yes in a political market showing strong recent momentum.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $1.38M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $7.56M deployed across 110 events.
- They bought $12.4K of Yes at 37¢ as the market has moved up 15 points this week.
$12,384 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $192,129
- 0x1fee...ed5e — No, $147,641 (90% win rate)
- 0x1c14...0869 — Yes, $109,845 (66% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $106,044 (70% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — No, $82,530 (82% win rate)
- 0xc8b9...b836 — Yes, $40,003 (65% win rate)
- 0x6ac0...55f3 — Yes, $33,453 (61% win rate)
- 0x44a0...c3b9 — Yes, $31,152 (52% win rate)
- 0x4366...c73e — Yes, $28,035 (44% win rate)
- 0x7b60...f259 — Yes, $26,700 (56% win rate)
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Iran ceasefire collapses by June
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Someone else wins Peru presidency
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