What does the “No leader out before 2027” prediction market cover?

It covers whether the first listed individual permanently ceases to occupy their listed office before 2027. The market resolves based on the first qualifying departure.

What counts as a qualifying departure?

A permanent removal from office qualifies. Temporary removals, provisional transfers of power, and similar short-term changes do not qualify.

Does a scheduled departure after an election count?

No. An announcement of resignation or removal, or a scheduled departure resulting from an election, does not qualify by itself under the market rules.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026, according to the first listed individual who permanently leaves their listed office.

What are smart money traders signaling?

The tracked smart money activity includes recent purchases of “No,” with $1,051 in smart money tracked and one recorded signal.

Part of: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether any listed leader will permanently cease occupying their office before 2027. Scheduled departures after elections and temporary removals do not qualify; the market resolves on December 31, 2026, based on the first qualifying departure. PolySpotter tracks the market’s live odds and smart money activity, including recent “No” signals.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,191.

Categories: Geopolitics, UK Labour Leadership, Politics, Starmer

Notable Trades

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and 170 resolved positions placed a meaningful No bet at 46%, which has since risen to 55%.

This bettor wins 84% of 170 resolved positions and has earned $1.12M in reported P&L.
They placed $2,140 on No at 46%, and No has since risen to 55%.
The wallet has traded across 59 markets and 44 events, indicating an experienced, repeatable strategy.

$1,051 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and 170 resolved positions placed a meaningful No bet at 46%, which has since risen to 55%.

This bettor wins 84% of 170 resolved positions and has earned $1.12M in reported P&L.
They placed $2,140 on No at 46%, and No has since risen to 55%.
The wallet has traded across 59 markets and 44 events, indicating an experienced, repeatable strategy.

$2,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%