What does the “No listed leader out before 2027” market predict?

It predicts whether any individual listed in the market will permanently cease occupying their listed office before the market’s resolution date.

When does this leadership prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at 04:59 UTC, unless a qualifying permanent removal occurs earlier.

What events count as a leader being out?

Only a permanent removal from the listed office qualifies. Temporary removals, impeachment suspensions, temporary transfers of power, and similar provisional changes do not count.

Do resignations or scheduled departures count?

No. An announcement of resignation or a scheduled departure resulting from an election does not qualify on its own under the market rules.

What smart money activity is visible for this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,746 in smart money activity across one signal, with repeated alerts showing a proven serial trader buying No.

Part of: Next leader out of power before 2027?

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether any listed leader will permanently leave their listed office before January 1, 2027. The market resolves based on the first qualifying permanent removal; scheduled departures, resignations, election outcomes, and temporary transfers of power do not count. Smart money activity currently shows repeated buying of No, with $1,746 tracked across one signal.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,956.

Categories: Geopolitics, UK Labour Leadership, Politics, Starmer

Notable Trades

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and 170 resolved positions placed a meaningful No bet at 46%, which has since risen to 55%.

This bettor wins 84% of 170 resolved positions and has earned $1.12M in reported P&L.
They placed $2,140 on No at 46%, and No has since risen to 55%.
The wallet has traded across 59 markets and 44 events, indicating an experienced, repeatable strategy.

$1,746 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and 170 resolved positions placed a meaningful No bet at 46%, which has since risen to 55%.

This bettor wins 84% of 170 resolved positions and has earned $1.12M in reported P&L.
They placed $2,140 on No at 46%, and No has since risen to 55%.
The wallet has traded across 59 markets and 44 events, indicating an experienced, repeatable strategy.

$2,019 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and 170 resolved positions placed a meaningful No bet at 46%, which has since risen to 55%.

This bettor wins 84% of 170 resolved positions and has earned $1.12M in reported P&L.
They placed $2,140 on No at 46%, and No has since risen to 55%.
The wallet has traded across 59 markets and 44 events, indicating an experienced, repeatable strategy.

$1,051 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and 170 resolved positions placed a meaningful No bet at 46%, which has since risen to 55%.

This bettor wins 84% of 170 resolved positions and has earned $1.12M in reported P&L.
They placed $2,140 on No at 46%, and No has since risen to 55%.
The wallet has traded across 59 markets and 44 events, indicating an experienced, repeatable strategy.

$2,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%