Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $8,961.
Categories: Tech, Math, Big Tech, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50, AI
Notable Trades
Serial thesis trader buying No
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large resolved sample bought No at 89¢ as that side was breaking out, signaling a strong event-level thesis rather than routine flow.
- This wallet has 626 resolved bets, wins 67% of them, and is up about $246k lifetime.
- They made a nearly $9k bet on No at 89¢ while that side pushed 28 points beyond its prior range.
- They trade across related markets constantly — 128 markets across 74 events — which suggests a broader thesis, not a one-off punt.
$8,961 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $17,550
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $10,532 (41% win rate)
- 0xc6dd...4b9f — No, $10,053 (67% win rate)
- 0x9a7b...99ec — Yes, $3,337
- 0x7d1b...e75c — Yes, $2,672
- 0x0482...6b0a — Yes, $2,364 (33% win rate)
- 0xb120...f2ff — Yes, $1,869
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Yes, $1,573
- 0xbeb9...3870 — No, $1,000 (52% win rate)
- 0xf579...9989 — No, $1,000 (69% win rate)
