Part of: OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will have no IPO by December 31, 2026. If OpenAI does go public before the deadline, the market resolves based on the company’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first trading day; PolySpotter is tracking $1,214 in smart money activity and 1 signal so far.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,214.
Categories: Big Tech, OpenAI, IPO, Tech, IPOs, Finance
Notable Trades
Thin-market breakout buyer
A modest-sized buy in a thin OpenAI IPO market pushed No well beyond its prior range, suggesting a directional move worth monitoring despite the wallet’s mixed track record.
- This trade helped push No far above its prior 33–36¢ range into the 70¢ area.
- The market is thin, with only about $2.3K in liquidity, so a $1.2K buy shows meaningful conviction.
- The wallet is not a high-win-rate bettor, but it is up about $130K lifetime across large volume.
$1,214 on No | Wallet win rate: 45%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $25,769
- 0x08c8...1da2 — Yes, $12,753
- 0xdef6...f63a — No, $4,659 (42% win rate)
- 0x64a2...a495 — Yes, $4,466 (20% win rate)
- 0x3e7b...a039 — No, $2,571
- 0xafbc...18c6 — Yes, $2,418
- 0x370a...baac — Yes, $2,307
- 0x79f2...18ff — No, $2,254
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $1,772 (57% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — No, $1,633 (45% win rate)
Related Theses
US-Iran peace deal imminent
Covers 7 related markets
Iran airspace closes by May 21
Covers 2 related markets
