Part of: Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether OpenAI’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed $1.5 trillion by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if Nasdaq Private Market reports an NPM Price at or above that level on any eligible trading date; otherwise, it resolves No. Smart money tracking currently includes $2,365 across one signal, including reported No buying by a profitable serial trader.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,616.
Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Big Tech, AI, chatgpt, sam altman, OpenAI, OpenAI IPO, gpt, Tech, Altman
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly experienced, profitable serial trader made a large No bet in a thin market while cross-market signals support the position.
- This bettor has won 73% of 4,176 resolved trades and earned $4.66 million in profit.
- The $2,365 No purchase was over seven times the market's reported 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a thin market.
- The trader has positioned across three markets in this event and has traded 219 markets across 184 events.
$2,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
14-wallet funded cluster
A 14-wallet funded cluster is taking a bearish OpenAI valuation position across multiple related markets, with this trade equivalent to buying No at 49¢.
- 14 wallets tied to the same funder are betting this OpenAI valuation theme.
- The same wallet cluster has put $25.4K across 4 related markets, suggesting a coordinated bearish view.
- This trade is effectively buying No at 49¢ on a thin market with only about $2.4K liquidity.
$1,878 on No | Wallet win rate: 53%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market thesis on OpenAI valuation, though this specific trade is modest in size.
- This bettor is up about $865k lifetime across nearly 1,000 resolved markets.
- They have put about $20k across 4 related OpenAI valuation markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- The market has moved up 7.5% today, so this buy is aligned with recent momentum.
$1,373 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
Related Theses
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Covers 4 related markets
