Part of: Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI’s private market valuation will reach or exceed $700 billion by December 31, 2026, based on the Nasdaq Private Market NPM Price. It resolves after the relevant NPM valuation data is available, with final resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $1,033 in smart money activity, including recent bearish valuation clustering and sharp buying of NO.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,497.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Tech, Big Tech, AI, chatgpt, sam altman, OpenAI, OpenAI IPO, gpt, Altman

Notable Trades

Profitable sharp buying NO

Surfaced because a profitable 79% winner made a meaningful No bet that was over half the market's daily volume, and price has moved in their favor.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $579 lifetime.
  • Their $1.0K No buy was about 52% of the market’s daily volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
  • The market has already moved their way, with No now around 79¢ after their 71¢ entry.

$1,033 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

11-wallet bearish valuation cluster

An 11-wallet funded cluster with a highly profitable lead wallet is taking a bearish cross-market view on OpenAI valuation milestones, and this trade has already moved in their favor.

  • 11 linked wallets share the same funder, suggesting one coordinated actor is taking this OpenAI valuation view.
  • This wallet is up about $869K lifetime despite nearly $66M of trading volume.
  • They sold Yes at 33¢, effectively buying No at 67¢, and the market has already moved toward their side.

$2,054 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

11-wallet funded bull cluster

Surface because an 11-wallet funded cluster with a highly profitable lead wallet is building a cross-market OpenAI valuation thesis in a relatively quiet market.

  • An 11-wallet group sharing the same funder is backing this direction, suggesting coordinated conviction.
  • The active wallet is up about $865K lifetime across nearly $66M of bets.
  • This is part of a broader 3-market OpenAI valuation thesis totaling about $18.6K.

$1,410 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Top Holders

  1. 0x3a8a...7699 No, $5,000 (63% win rate)
  2. 0x8a4c...532b Yes, $3,700 (52% win rate)
  3. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $1,363 (58% win rate)
  4. 0x97f3...0eba Yes, $667 (41% win rate)
  5. 0xec2c...4676 Yes, $608
  6. 0xc974...eb16 No, $500
  7. 0x226a...6411 No, $462
  8. 0xa8d6...d3da Yes, $445
  9. 0xb0fc...ce0b No, $361 (62% win rate)
  10. 0xcd96...cbdc No, $288

Related Theses

Anthropic valuation market mispriced

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Starmer exits by May 2026

Covers 3 related markets

OpenAI valuation soars past $1.5T

Covers 4 related markets

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

165dWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?$4,497 tracked3 signalsFinancePrivatesllmTechBig TechAIchatgptsam altmanOpenAIOpenAI IPOgptAltman
Yes
30¢
No
70¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
81¢
75¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

22d ago

$1,033 on No at 71¢

71¢70¢1¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

55d ago

$2,054 on No at 67¢

67¢70¢3¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

60d ago

$1,410 on Yes at 18¢

18¢30¢12¢

Related Theses