Part of: Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,410.

Categories: Big Tech, gpt, llm, chatgpt, Tech, Finance, AI, Privates, Altman

Notable Trades

11-wallet funded bull cluster

Surface because an 11-wallet funded cluster with a highly profitable lead wallet is building a cross-market OpenAI valuation thesis in a relatively quiet market.

  • An 11-wallet group sharing the same funder is backing this direction, suggesting coordinated conviction.
  • The active wallet is up about $865K lifetime across nearly $66M of bets.
  • This is part of a broader 3-market OpenAI valuation thesis totaling about $18.6K.

$1,410 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8a4c...532b Yes, $7,919 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $6,971 (47% win rate)
  3. 0x4b0f...028f Yes, $1,134
  4. 0xdb40...3612 No, $700
  5. 0xc974...eb16 No, $500
  6. 0x21ff...0d71 No, $139
  7. 0x20c9...e62d No, $130
  8. 0x22a4...13e5 No, $125
  9. 0x34cb...7588 No, $120
  10. 0x9560...1279 No, $105

Related Theses

Anthropic reaches three trillion

Covers 4 related markets

Starmer won't exit in June

Covers 3 related markets

OpenAI valuation soars past trillion

Covers 4 related markets

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

225dWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?$1,410 tracked1 signalBig TechgptllmchatgptTechFinanceAIPrivatesAltman
Yes
29¢
No
71¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
89¢
79¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

3h ago

$1,410 on Yes at 18¢

18¢29¢11¢

Related Theses