Part of: Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI’s private market valuation, measured by Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price, will reach or exceed $750 billion on any trading date by December 31, 2026. It resolves after the data window, with final resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027, based on the published NPM valuation data. PolySpotter is tracking $1,296 in smart money activity and 1 signal, with recent alerts leaning bearish on the Yes side.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,956.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Tech, Big Tech, AI, chatgpt, sam altman, OpenAI, OpenAI IPO, gpt, Altman

Notable Trades

16-wallet bearish cluster

Surface: a 16-wallet funded cluster with a profitable high-volume wallet is building a bearish OpenAI valuation thesis across related markets.

  • 16 linked wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction behind this side.
  • The wallet is up about $895k lifetime and has traded across 4 related OpenAI valuation markets.
  • This bet was huge for a quiet market, equal to roughly 96x the recent tracked volume.

$1,296 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market bettor with a very high hit rate sold No on a quiet OpenAI valuation market before a sharp move toward Yes, though lifetime P&L is not positive.

  • This bettor has traded 235 markets across 157 events and wins 92% of resolved bets.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 33¢, well below the current 46¢ market price.
  • The market is relatively quiet, and Yes has already moved up 15 percentage points in the last day.

$1,217 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable cross-market bear

Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a cross-market bearish position on OpenAI hitting a $750B valuation, though the individual trade size is modest.

  • This bettor is up $872K lifetime across nearly 1,000 resolved markets.
  • They have placed $15K across 4 related OpenAI valuation markets, pointing to a broader bearish thesis.
  • Selling Yes at 34¢ is equivalent to buying No at 66¢, against a market that has already drifted lower this week.

$1,704 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

11-wallet funded OpenAI bear

High-score alert from an 11-wallet funded cluster taking the No side across related OpenAI valuation markets, backed by a wallet with large positive lifetime P&L.

  • 11 wallets funded by the same source are aligned against this valuation milestone.
  • The same group has traded 4 related OpenAI valuation markets with $12.7k in total positioning.
  • This wallet is up about $868k lifetime despite a modest 52% hit rate.

$1,179 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Linked cluster fading Yes

High-scoring linked-wallet cluster with a profitable high-volume trader fading Yes near 89¢ before the market moved down to 66¢.

  • 11 linked wallets share the same funder and have put $8.4k into this market setup.
  • This wallet has a long track record: 986 resolved bets and $865k in lifetime profit.
  • The trade effectively bought No at 11¢, and Yes has since fallen from 89¢ to 66¢.

$1,559 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8a4c...532b Yes, $23,927 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $11,700 (47% win rate)
  3. 0x46f1...701f No, $5,049 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x8454...331a No, $3,411 (91% win rate)
  5. 0xd5b9...e44e No, $910 (59% win rate)
  6. 0xd12f...e85a No, $845 (62% win rate)
  7. 0x14a3...c186 No, $580
  8. 0xa8d6...d3da Yes, $513
  9. 0xc974...eb16 No, $500
  10. 0xdb40...3612 No, $500 (45% win rate)

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Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

165dWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?$6,956 tracked5 signalsFinancePrivatesllmTechBig TechAIchatgptsam altmanOpenAIOpenAI IPOgptAltman
Yes
40¢
No
60¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
78¢
65¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

18d ago

$1,296 on No at 70¢

70¢60¢10¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

48d ago

$1,217 on Yes at 33¢

33¢40¢7¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

51d ago

$1,704 on No at 66¢

66¢60¢6¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

58d ago

$1,179 on No at 61¢

61¢60¢1¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

61d ago

$1,559 on No at 11¢

11¢60¢49¢

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