Part of: Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI’s private market valuation, based on the Nasdaq Private Market NPM Price, will reach or exceed $800 billion on any trading date through December 31, 2026. The market resolves after the deadline, with resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027, and PolySpotter currently tracks $9,743 in smart money activity across 2 signals for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,486.

Categories: Big Tech, gpt, llm, chatgpt, Tech, Finance, AI, Privates, Altman

Notable Trades

11-wallet funded cluster

An 11-wallet cluster sharing the same funder is collectively betting Yes on a thin OpenAI valuation market, with this wallet entering at 50¢ before the market moved to 60¢.

  • 11 linked wallets funded by the same address have put $8.7k on the same side.
  • This entry was at 50¢ and the market has already moved to 60¢, suggesting the cluster may be driving momentum.
  • The executing wallet is up $865k lifetime across $66M traded.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

11-wallet funded cluster

An 11-wallet funded cluster made a large Yes buy on a thin OpenAI valuation market, with the position entering around 46–50¢ before odds jumped to 88¢.

  • 11 linked wallets share the same funder, suggesting one coordinated actor is building this position.
  • The bettor put $8.7K into a thin market, more than the reported 24h volume at the time.
  • They bought Yes around 46–50¢ before the market moved to 88¢, a major price confirmation.

$8,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

11-wallet funded cluster

High-severity linked-wallet signal: an 11-wallet funded cluster is buying Yes on a thin OpenAI valuation market, with this trade larger than the market's full 24h volume.

  • 11 wallets funded by the same source have been betting this way, a strong coordinated conviction signal.
  • This $7.7K buy was 134% of the market’s entire 24h volume, making it a large bet in a thin market.
  • The bettor is up about $865K lifetime, though their resolved win rate is only 52%.

$7,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8a4c...532b Yes, $19,000 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xb314...db05 No, $8,491
  3. 0x6566...ea1e No, $4,947
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $4,502 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x8df7...36c4 Yes, $1,111 (72% win rate)
  6. 0x3a85...8740 No, $790
  7. 0xc974...eb16 No, $500
  8. 0xeae5...0720 No, $329 (56% win rate)
  9. 0x22a4...13e5 No, $300
  10. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $200

Related Theses

OpenAI hits $800B valuation

Covers 2 related markets

Anthropic reaches three trillion

Covers 4 related markets

Starmer won't exit in June

Covers 3 related markets

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

225dWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?$17,486 tracked3 signalsBig TechgptllmchatgptTechFinanceAIPrivatesAltman
Yes
63¢
No
38¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “Yes
68¢
41¢
13¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

1d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 50¢

50¢63¢13¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

1d ago

$8,743 on Yes at 46¢

46¢63¢17¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

1d ago

$7,743 on Yes at 46¢

46¢63¢17¢

Related Theses