What are the Polymarket odds that Pedro Sánchez will be Spain’s next prime minister?

A recent PolySpotter smart-money alert showed 97% on No. Market prices can change, so check the live market for the latest odds.

When does the Pedro Sánchez prime minister market resolve?

The market covers the next person to officially assume office by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET.

What qualifies as becoming Spain’s next prime minister in this market?

The person must receive a vote of confidence from Spain’s Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, resulting in the formation of a new government. A caretaker prime minister who does not receive a confidence vote does not qualify.

Does the market resolve Yes if Sánchez remains prime minister?

The market resolves based on who is the next individual to officially assume the office by the deadline. Its stated criteria require a confidence vote and formal swearing-in; consult the exchange’s full rules for edge cases.

Part of: Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

This Polymarket market asks whether Pedro Sánchez will be the next person to officially assume Spain’s prime ministership by March 31, 2028. A recent smart-money alert showed 97% on No; resolution requires a parliamentary confidence vote and formal swearing-in.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,000.

Categories: Spain, Politics, Elections, parliament, Main Election, Pedro Sanchez, Global Elections

Notable Trades

97% winner adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a 97% record is adding to an existing No position, making this a credible copy-trade despite the market already pricing No at 88%.

This bettor has won 146 of 150 resolved bets and is up $154,773.
They added $2,000 to an existing No position and have traded across 65 events with a 97% win rate.

$20,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

97% winner adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a 97% record is adding to an existing No position, making this a credible copy-trade despite the market already pricing No at 88%.

This bettor has won 146 of 150 resolved bets and is up $154,773.
They added $2,000 to an existing No position and have traded across 65 events with a 97% win rate.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%