Part of: Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,744.

Categories: Eurovision, Music, Culture

Notable Trades

94% winner buying Yes

Sharp high-win-rate wallet bought Poland Yes at 78¢ amid strong Eurovision momentum and has a strong profitable track record.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up about $47k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 78¢, below the current 86¢ market price.
  • Poland’s odds have jumped 22.5 points in the past day, supporting the same direction.

$2,744 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x15a6...bf5d No, $9,999 (45% win rate)
  2. 0x94c4...43ca Yes, $8,355 (94% win rate)
  3. 0x4f07...0170 No, $4,277 (87% win rate)
  4. 0x997b...801e No, $3,725 (40% win rate)
  5. 0x1368...220f Yes, $2,449
  6. 0x6ffb...a834 Yes, $2,400 (97% win rate)
  7. 0x0336...4bb0 Yes, $2,259 (97% win rate)
  8. 0x594e...1c11 No, $1,500 (78% win rate)
  9. 0x4ad6...464c Yes, $1,496
  10. 0x1eaa...b550 Yes, $1,278

Related Theses

Greece Cyprus top ten, Ukraine misses

Covers 3 related markets

Poland and Portugal advance

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

ResolvedEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final$2,744 tracked1 signalEurovisionMusicCulture
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
74¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

2h ago

$2,744 on Yes at 78¢

78¢100¢22¢

Related Theses