Part of: Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $62,550.
Categories: Ukraine Map, Geopolitics, Politics
Notable Trades
Four-wallet coordinated No exit
Four wallets coordinated $31.7K of No sales in an unusually thin market, creating a notable equivalent Yes position despite mixed and mostly weak track records.
- Four wallets moved $31,740 in near-simultaneous No sales, an unusually large position relative to the market’s thin liquidity.
- The trades imply buying Yes around 18¢, suggesting these wallets see meaningful upside in Russia capturing Bilytske by the deadline.
- The signal is tempered by three wallets having previously held and closed No positions, making this look partly like coordinated profit-taking rather than entirely fresh conviction.
$31,740 on Yes
Four-wallet No accumulation
Four wallets added $30.8K to No in a very thin market, creating a strong concentrated directional signal despite only moderate trader track records.
- Four wallets added $30,810 to No within seconds, signaling concentrated conviction.
- The trades were nearly 85 times the market's $364 24-hour volume and overwhelmed its $559 liquidity.
- Several wallets already held No at 80¢ and increased their positions, making this an escalation rather than a fresh bet.
$30,810 on No
Top Holders
- 0x2b16...ec21 — Yes, $1,129
- 0x56c2...6219 — Yes, $541
- 0x9290...3452 — Yes, $520
- 0x7216...cb34 — Yes, $368
- 0x1ac6...b2ed — Yes, $325
- 0xddae...5d62 — Yes, $225
- 0xb8ad...ff58 — Yes, $200
- 0xb084...b64f — Yes, $188
- 0xe762...064b — Yes, $143 (45% win rate)
- 0xc6bf...dbe7 — Yes, $78
