Part of: Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture a specific building at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30, 2026. It resolves using the specified ISW map layer: “Yes” if any part of the building is shaded red by the deadline, and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter is tracking $31,740 in smart money and recent No-side activity, including coordinated exits and accumulation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $62,550.

Categories: Ukraine Map, Geopolitics, Politics

Notable Trades

Four-wallet coordinated No exit

Four wallets coordinated $31.7K of No sales in an unusually thin market, creating a notable equivalent Yes position despite mixed and mostly weak track records.

  • Four wallets moved $31,740 in near-simultaneous No sales, an unusually large position relative to the market’s thin liquidity.
  • The trades imply buying Yes around 18¢, suggesting these wallets see meaningful upside in Russia capturing Bilytske by the deadline.
  • The signal is tempered by three wallets having previously held and closed No positions, making this look partly like coordinated profit-taking rather than entirely fresh conviction.

$31,740 on Yes

Four-wallet No accumulation

Four wallets added $30.8K to No in a very thin market, creating a strong concentrated directional signal despite only moderate trader track records.

  • Four wallets added $30,810 to No within seconds, signaling concentrated conviction.
  • The trades were nearly 85 times the market's $364 24-hour volume and overwhelmed its $559 liquidity.
  • Several wallets already held No at 80¢ and increased their positions, making this an escalation rather than a fresh bet.

$30,810 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x0a00...60aa — No, $1,530
  2. 0x3034...dd88 — Yes, $1,021
  3. 0x8f69...7df1 — Yes, $980 (67% win rate)
  4. 0x5c08...eba9 — No, $902 (65% win rate)
  5. 0xf2a6...24b8 — Yes, $763
  6. 0xc5a3...883a — No, $513 (53% win rate)
  7. 0xd98a...4db0 — No, $500
  8. 0x9238...b73e — Yes, $400 (41% win rate)
  9. 0xeca0...e8f8 — No, $400 (53% win rate)
  10. 0x90b7...0b0d — No, $400

Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?

19dWill Russia capture Bilytske by...?$62,550 tracked2 signalsUkraine MapGeopoliticsPolitics
Yes
18¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “No”
87¢
83¢
78¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?

15h ago

$31,740 on Yes at 18¢

18¢→18¢

Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?

1d ago

$30,810 on No at 80¢

80¢→83¢↑3¢