Part of: Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Russia will capture a specified intersection in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if any part of the intersection is shaded as captured on the designated ISW map by 11:59 p.m. ET; current odds were not included in the provided market data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,237.
Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A consistently profitable cross-market trader is adding $1,400 to an existing No position, though their win rate is only slightly above their average winning entry price.
- This trader is up $34,254 across 197 resolved bets and has traded across 27 events.
- They added $1,400 to an existing No position at 84¢, with No currently priced at 86¢.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A consistently profitable cross-market trader is adding $1,400 to an existing No position, though their win rate is only slightly above their average winning entry price.
- This trader is up $34,254 across 197 resolved bets and has traded across 27 events.
- They added $1,400 to an existing No position at 84¢, with No currently priced at 86¢.
$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
No bettor adding after sharp move
The wallet added to an existing sizable No position as No moved sharply beyond its recorded historical range, though its track record does not show a clear edge against entry odds.
- The bettor added $1,837 to an existing $7,030 No position at 85¢.
- No rose 33.75 percentage points beyond the recorded historical range in a quiet market.
$1,837 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
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