Part of: Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30?
This Polymarket market tracks whether Russia will capture the specified Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E by the June 30, 2026 deadline. Resolution is based on the ISW map: if any part of the intersection is shaded red by the cutoff, the market resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,626 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,626.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map
Notable Trades
Profitable thin-market sharp
Surfacing because a proven profitable wallet made a large No bet that dwarfs activity in a very thin Russia-Ukraine resolution market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $22.2K lifetime.
- The $1.6K No buy was over 100x this market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 74¢ suggests they see Russia failing to capture the intersection by the deadline as underpriced.
$1,626 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x165e...f5aa — No, $1,730 (76% win rate)
- 0x167a...91d5 — Yes, $315 (62% win rate)
- 0x2703...903d — Yes, $228
- 0xbb8f...ac04 — Yes, $228
- 0xfe41...9f23 — Yes, $225
- 0x168f...9e00 — Yes, $169
- 0xc602...7fc1 — Yes, $160 (39% win rate)
- 0xe8fc...0d3b — Yes, $100
- 0xa3e2...fdf8 — Yes, $94
- 0x6725...1bf9 — Yes, $61
