Part of: Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?
This Polymarket asks whether Russia will capture any territory of Mykhailivka, Sumy Oblast by May 31, 2026, based on the ISW map. PolySpotter tracks the live market odds and has identified $2,676 in smart-money activity, including a sharp bettor exiting Yes. The market resolves Yes if any part of Mykhailivka is shown as captured under the qualifying ISW map layer by the deadline; otherwise it resolves No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykhailivka, Sumy Oblast, (50.797758° N, 35.315210° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,189.
Categories: Politics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor exits Yes
A proven profitable wallet sold its Yes stake, converting to a No view at 28¢, though the trade appears to be an exit from an existing position rather than a fresh short.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $17.2k lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 72¢, which converts to buying No at 28¢.
- This looks like a sharp exit from an existing Yes position, not a brand-new bet.
$2,676 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp thin-market war bettor
Sharp profitable wallet made a large Yes bet on a very thin Ukraine-war map market, though the recorded 68¢ entry is far above the current 6¢ price and should be treated cautiously.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $17,022 lifetime.
- The $2.5k Yes buy was over 10x this market’s 24h volume, a strong conviction move in a thin order book.
- Entry was recorded at 68¢ while Yes now trades near 6¢, so the signal is notable but the price data looks unusual.
$2,514 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xa4e6...864e — Yes, $2,079 (75% win rate)
- 0xd5cc...dea4 — No, $2,049 (72% win rate)
- 0xa66e...b2b6 — Yes, $1,840 (75% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $1,296 (76% win rate)
- 0xef95...88c0 — Yes, $1,023
- 0xc3e0...4eb7 — Yes, $550
- 0x7495...7fcf — No, $462
- 0xc4b2...9a9b — No, $430 (79% win rate)
- 0x1e52...91d6 — Yes, $300
- 0x6d8c...b79a — No, $240
