Part of: Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $11,740.
Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Notable Trades
Three-wallet Yes conviction cluster
Three wallets concentrated $11.7K into Yes, including a repeat new-wallet bettor, while the market has risen 43% over the past week.
- Three wallets bought $11,740 of Yes, with the largest order worth $7,527 at 84¢.
- The market has climbed 43% in a week, suggesting the coordinated buying is reinforcing strong momentum.
- One wallet added to an existing Yes position, while another repeat new wallet supplied fresh conviction.
$11,740 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $11,561 (60% win rate)
- 0xcb36...a357 — No, $4,537
- 0x066f...2e56 — No, $4,310 (82% win rate)
- 0x2927...9dfe — No, $4,113
- 0xa002...e840 — No, $3,624
- 0xef54...c997 — No, $2,177
- 0xcf9e...518e — No, $1,707 (85% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — No, $1,671 (95% win rate)
- 0x1144...b8c0 — No, $1,632
- 0x9a02...7e46 — No, $1,030
