Part of: Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether Russia will capture any territory of Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast by September 30, 2026. It resolves Yes if the specified area is shaded as captured on the ISW map; otherwise, it resolves No. The market has $11,740 in tracked smart-money activity across one signal, while current Yes/No prices were not provided in the available metadata.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $11,740.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Three-wallet Yes conviction cluster

Three wallets concentrated $11.7K into Yes, including a repeat new-wallet bettor, while the market has risen 43% over the past week.

  • Three wallets bought $11,740 of Yes, with the largest order worth $7,527 at 84¢.
  • The market has climbed 43% in a week, suggesting the coordinated buying is reinforcing strong momentum.
  • One wallet added to an existing Yes position, while another repeat new wallet supplied fresh conviction.

$11,740 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xc4d5...87cf Yes, $12,455 (51% win rate)
  2. 0xb1ca...1705 Yes, $9,612 (55% win rate)
  3. 0xc5a3...883a No, $6,943 (53% win rate)
  4. 0xcb36...a357 No, $4,537
  5. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $3,229 (70% win rate)
  6. 0xf9b7...60a4 No, $3,000 (65% win rate)
  7. 0xb26c...0eb0 No, $2,898 (61% win rate)
  8. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $2,435
  9. 0xe443...c065 No, $1,883
  10. 0x72f7...92f7 Yes, $1,867 (40% win rate)

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

19dWill Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?$11,740 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsUkraine Map
Yes
60¢
No
41¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes
77¢
66¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

18d ago

$11,740 on Yes at 84¢

84¢60¢24¢