Part of: Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...?

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture any territory of Vozdvyzhivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by May 31, 2026, as shown on the ISW map. It resolves “Yes” if any part of Vozdvyzhivka is shaded as Russian-controlled under the specified ISW layer by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,122 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Vozdvyzhivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,122.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map, Politics, Ukraine

Notable Trades

92% cross-market sharp

A highly experienced cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $26.8K lifetime.
  • They have traded 365 related markets across 182 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Yes has jumped 43.5 points in a day, and this buy adds to strong momentum at 80¢.

$1,122 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0xef73...c3c7 No, $1,512
  2. 0xb57a...b8c3 Yes, $1,390 (76% win rate)
  3. 0x4518...1cac Yes, $1,146
  4. 0xff52...4546 No, $1,000
  5. 0xe99b...0443 Yes, $797
  6. 0xe7d4...886e No, $781
  7. 0x1c56...0b1d Yes, $752
  8. 0x4ea9...1651 No, $635
  9. 0x9238...b73e Yes, $588 (39% win rate)
  10. 0x42b9...ded7 Yes, $575

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Russia enters Vozdvyzhivka by May

Covers 3 related markets

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?

15dWill Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...?$1,122 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsUkraine MapPoliticsUkraine
Yes
95¢
No
6¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Vozdvyzhivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes
97¢
63¢
28¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?

2h ago

$1,122 on Yes at 80¢

80¢95¢15¢

Related Theses