Part of: What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,610.

Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Stocks, Equities, SPY, Rewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian Yes position across related SPY level markets in a relatively thin, wide-spread book.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 531 resolved bets, 65% wins, and about $54.6K profit.
  • They are active across related markets, with $15.9K placed on 3 markets in this same event.
  • Selling No at 87¢ equals buying Yes at 13¢, a contrarian bet in a wide-spread, thin market.

$1,379 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable serial macro bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes around 14¢ on a thin SPY level market after placing $9.6k across related markets.

  • This bettor has won 65% of 531 resolved bets and is up about $58k lifetime.
  • They have a long cross-market track record, with 47 markets traded across 37 events.
  • Selling No is the same as buying Yes around 14¢, suggesting they see upside versus the current low odds.

$2,406 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable serial macro trader

Serial cross-market trader with a large sample and positive P&L is buying No on a SPY level market after a sharp weekly move lower.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 509 resolved bets, 64% winners, and about $55.9K in profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $318K spread across 37 related markets in 31 events.
  • Buying No at 64¢ goes against a market that has moved sharply toward Yes over the past week.

$1,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0x81a6...762e Outcome 40342684, $2,000
  2. 0x6f2a...de7d Outcome 40342684, $1,250
  3. 0x56c2...6219 Outcome 40342684, $944
  4. 0xb424...3b71 Outcome 40342684, $819
  5. 0x56ab...784e Outcome 40342684, $537 (54% win rate)
  6. 0x8aaf...7beb Outcome 40342684, $500
  7. 0xecb5...72d7 Outcome 40342684, $448 (97% win rate)
  8. 0x12aa...ccd9 Outcome 40342684, $403
  9. 0xccc0...32e9 Outcome 41441028, $252 (0% win rate)
  10. 0x0548...c5bf Outcome 40342684, $211

Related Theses

Iran deal timing arbitrage

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SPY rises on May 27

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S&P opens lower May 19

Covers 1 related market

WTI rises on May 19

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

ResolvedWhat will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?$5,610 tracked3 signalsFinanceMonthlyHit PriceHide From NewFinance UpdownPyth FinanceStocksEquitiesSPYRewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Notable Trades

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

40d ago

$1,379 on Yes at 13¢

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

40d ago

$2,406 on Yes at 14¢

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

51d ago

$1,825 on No at 64¢

Related Theses