Part of: World Cup Winner
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $557,166.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
New World Cup whale
Brand-new wallet is repeatedly deploying meaningful size across 2026 World Cup markets, including a $4.5k Spain Yes buy at 13¢.
- A 2-day-old wallet has already placed $29k in flagged World Cup bets.
- This $4.5k Spain buy is part of a 3-market position, suggesting a deliberate futures thesis.
- Entry at 13¢ gives roughly 7.7x upside if Spain wins.
$5,000 on Yes
New World Cup whale
Brand-new wallet is repeatedly deploying meaningful size across 2026 World Cup markets, including a $4.5k Spain Yes buy at 13¢.
- A 2-day-old wallet has already placed $29k in flagged World Cup bets.
- This $4.5k Spain buy is part of a 3-market position, suggesting a deliberate futures thesis.
- Entry at 13¢ gives roughly 7.7x upside if Spain wins.
$5,000 on Yes
92% win-rate serial bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is reopening a Spain Yes position at 17¢ despite the market being very liquid.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $2.63M lifetime.
- They have traded across 694 markets and $6.7M in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- Entry at 17¢ implies a roughly 5.9x payout if Spain wins the 2026 World Cup.
$7,683 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
92% win-rate serial bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is reopening a Spain Yes position at 17¢ despite the market being very liquid.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $2.63M lifetime.
- They have traded across 694 markets and $6.7M in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- Entry at 17¢ implies a roughly 5.9x payout if Spain wins the 2026 World Cup.
$1,775 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
New World Cup whale
Brand-new wallet is repeatedly deploying meaningful size across 2026 World Cup markets, including a $4.5k Spain Yes buy at 13¢.
- A 2-day-old wallet has already placed $29k in flagged World Cup bets.
- This $4.5k Spain buy is part of a 3-market position, suggesting a deliberate futures thesis.
- Entry at 13¢ gives roughly 7.7x upside if Spain wins.
$15,000 on Yes
92% win-rate serial bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is reopening a Spain Yes position at 17¢ despite the market being very liquid.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $2.63M lifetime.
- They have traded across 694 markets and $6.7M in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- Entry at 17¢ implies a roughly 5.9x payout if Spain wins the 2026 World Cup.
$51,071 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
New profitable whale
A brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profits bought $5.15k of Spain Yes at 12¢.
- This wallet is less than 10 hours old but is already up $23.9k across early positions.
- It has now triggered 5 large-bet alerts totaling $39.6k, suggesting repeated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Entry at 12¢ implies a high-upside World Cup position if Spain’s title odds move up.
$20,870 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
New profitable whale
A brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profits bought $5.15k of Spain Yes at 12¢.
- This wallet is less than 10 hours old but is already up $23.9k across early positions.
- It has now triggered 5 large-bet alerts totaling $39.6k, suggesting repeated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Entry at 12¢ implies a high-upside World Cup position if Spain’s title odds move up.
$20,051 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
New profitable whale
A brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profits bought $5.15k of Spain Yes at 12¢.
- This wallet is less than 10 hours old but is already up $23.9k across early positions.
- It has now triggered 5 large-bet alerts totaling $39.6k, suggesting repeated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Entry at 12¢ implies a high-upside World Cup position if Spain’s title odds move up.
$20,155 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
97% winner fading contenders
A very high-hit-rate wallet is taking a $59k cross-market World Cup position, including buying Spain No at 88¢, though its lifetime profit edge is modest.
- This bettor has won 97% of resolved trades across 405 bets.
- They have built a $59k position across 5 World Cup winner markets.
- Buying Spain No at 88¢ is a conservative fade with about 14% upside if Spain does not win.
$1,458 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $52,325,995
- 0xc58d...9373 — No, $1,111,110 (57% win rate)
- 0x7d92...8676 — No, $200,000 (70% win rate)
- 0x99c4...18e7 — No, $196,906 (51% win rate)
- 0xdf92...6fa0 — Yes, $95,481 (50% win rate)
- 0x8fbb...9a17 — No, $68,007 (53% win rate)
- 0xdd10...416f — No, $50,408 (75% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — No, $49,572 (62% win rate)
- 0xc6e9...0741 — No, $43,428 (96% win rate)
- 0xe82d...adc8 — No, $25,840 (32% win rate)
Related Theses
Argentina France or Portugal win
Covers 5 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
Trump lifts Hormuz blockade
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal likely soon
Covers 10 related markets
Spain or Germany win World Cup
Covers 3 related markets
US-Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
