What is the Spider-Man: Brand New Day box office prediction?

The market predicts whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will earn more than $280 million at the domestic box office during its opening weekend.

When does the Spider-Man: Brand New Day box office market resolve?

It resolves after final, non-estimated figures are available for the three-day opening weekend from July 31 through August 2, 2026.

How will this Spider-Man box office market be settled?

Settlement uses the final three-day opening-weekend gross listed in the Daily Box Office Performance figures on the movie’s The Numbers page.

Does the market cover worldwide box office revenue?

No. This market covers the domestic opening-weekend gross only.

Where can I see Polymarket odds and smart money activity?

The market page shows the latest prediction odds and tracked smart money signals, including recent buying activity.

Part of: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

This prediction market asks whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will gross more than $280 million domestically during its three-day opening weekend, July 31–August 2, 2026. It resolves using final daily box office figures from The Numbers, with smart money activity currently tracked on the market page.

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,843.

Categories: box office, Movies, Culture

Notable Trades

Million-dollar serial trader buys Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 1,130 resolved bets and over $1 million in profit is buying Yes as the market trends upward, though the historical edge is modest.

This bettor has won 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $1.06 million lifetime.
The $1,384 Yes position is in a relatively thin market and follows a 19.3% weekly price increase.
The entry at 38¢ implies the trader sees a substantial chance that the opening weekend exceeds $280 million.

$2,262 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Position builder behind breakout

A wallet added to an existing Yes position during a 36.9-point breakout, making this a notable momentum trade despite limited evidence of bettor skill.

The wallet added $1,155 to an existing Yes position as the price surged 36.9 percentage points beyond its historical range.
Yes is now trading at 88%, up 58.7% over the past week, indicating strong market-wide momentum.
The bettor has a 52% win rate, so the breakout—not the wallet’s track record—is the main reason to follow this trade.

$1,155 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Million-dollar serial trader buys Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 1,130 resolved bets and over $1 million in profit is buying Yes as the market trends upward, though the historical edge is modest.

This bettor has won 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $1.06 million lifetime.
The $1,384 Yes position is in a relatively thin market and follows a 19.3% weekly price increase.
The entry at 38¢ implies the trader sees a substantial chance that the opening weekend exceeds $280 million.

$1,043 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Million-dollar serial trader buys Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 1,130 resolved bets and over $1 million in profit is buying Yes as the market trends upward, though the historical edge is modest.

This bettor has won 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $1.06 million lifetime.
The $1,384 Yes position is in a relatively thin market and follows a 19.3% weekly price increase.
The entry at 38¢ implies the trader sees a substantial chance that the opening weekend exceeds $280 million.

$1,384 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%