Part of: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,843.

Categories: box office, Movies, Culture

Notable Trades

Million-dollar serial trader buys Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 1,130 resolved bets and over $1 million in profit is buying Yes as the market trends upward, though the historical edge is modest.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $1.06 million lifetime.
  • The $1,384 Yes position is in a relatively thin market and follows a 19.3% weekly price increase.
  • The entry at 38¢ implies the trader sees a substantial chance that the opening weekend exceeds $280 million.

$2,262 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Position builder behind breakout

A wallet added to an existing Yes position during a 36.9-point breakout, making this a notable momentum trade despite limited evidence of bettor skill.

  • The wallet added $1,155 to an existing Yes position as the price surged 36.9 percentage points beyond its historical range.
  • Yes is now trading at 88%, up 58.7% over the past week, indicating strong market-wide momentum.
  • The bettor has a 52% win rate, so the breakout—not the wallet’s track record—is the main reason to follow this trade.

$1,155 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Million-dollar serial trader buys Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 1,130 resolved bets and over $1 million in profit is buying Yes as the market trends upward, though the historical edge is modest.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $1.06 million lifetime.
  • The $1,384 Yes position is in a relatively thin market and follows a 19.3% weekly price increase.
  • The entry at 38¢ implies the trader sees a substantial chance that the opening weekend exceeds $280 million.

$1,043 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Million-dollar serial trader buys Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 1,130 resolved bets and over $1 million in profit is buying Yes as the market trends upward, though the historical edge is modest.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $1.06 million lifetime.
  • The $1,384 Yes position is in a relatively thin market and follows a 19.3% weekly price increase.
  • The entry at 38¢ implies the trader sees a substantial chance that the opening weekend exceeds $280 million.

$1,384 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 88685210, $36,994
  2. 0xf638...aa50 Outcome 88685210, $8,918 (82% win rate)
  3. 0x3ecb...aa7d Outcome 88685210, $2,608
  4. 0xa2db...9070 Outcome 88685210, $2,104
  5. 0x88b6...3cff Outcome 88685210, $2,046 (77% win rate)
  6. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 88685210, $1,840
  7. 0x2bb8...b136 Outcome 88685210, $1,700
  8. 0x62da...326d Outcome 88685210, $1,323
  9. 0x4483...c565 Outcome 88685210, $1,180 (56% win rate)
  10. 0xb410...57eb Outcome 88685210, $1,146

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Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

Resolved"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office$5,843 tracked4 signalsbox officeMoviesCulture

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
91¢
79¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

46d ago

$2,262 on Yes at 38¢

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

46d ago

$1,155 on Yes at 85¢

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

49d ago

$1,043 on Yes at 38¢

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

50d ago

$1,384 on Yes at 38¢

Related Theses