Part of: Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $29,948.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, California Governor

Notable Trades

6-hour wallet scaling in

A 6-hour-old wallet has now put nearly $12k into related California governor primary markets, buying Yes after a sharp 1-day move higher.

A brand-new wallet is already deploying size, with about $11.9k flagged across related markets.
This buy follows a sharp move higher, with Yes up 27 points in the past day.
Entry at 87¢ suggests the bettor is backing Steve Hilton as a strong favorite to advance.

$1,389 on Yes

New wallet chasing breakout

A 6-hour-old wallet is making repeated five-figure political bets, adding $3.8k to Yes after a sharp 27-point daily move.

A wallet created under 6 hours ago has already placed $11.9k in flagged bets across this governor-primary event.
It bought $3.8k of Yes at 87–88¢, showing conviction even after the market jumped 27 points in a day.
The market is liquid and active, so the signal is less about size alone and more about a brand-new wallet repeatedly backing the same event.

$3,840 on Yes

Fresh wallet scaling Yes

A 6-hour-old wallet has made repeated large bets totaling $10.5k across the same California governor event, buying Yes despite already-elevated odds and strong 1-day momentum.

This brand-new wallet has already made 4 flagged bets totaling $10.5k.
They bought Yes at 88¢, showing conviction even after the market moved up 21 points in a day.
The same wallet is positioning across 2 related governor markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.

$2,450 on Yes

85% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with 85% win rate and $102k profit bought Yes despite recent market weakness and a 30x volume spike.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $102k lifetime.
They put $4.5k on Yes at 70¢ in a politics market where informed views can matter.
Market activity spiked 30x, though the price has since slipped to 62¢, offering a cheaper entry than theirs.

$4,453 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable serial political bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes on Steve Hilton after a sharp odds drop, with related positioning across the California governor event.

This bettor has a long track record: 893 resolved bets, 69% winners, and about $874K in lifetime profit.
They regularly trade across related political markets, with 154 markets across 104 events and $1.23M in tracked cross-market volume.
They bought Yes at 54¢ after the market fell sharply over the past week, suggesting a contrarian view that Hilton is now underpriced.

$1,065 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial political bettor

Serial cross-market trader with a long positive track record is buying No despite Hilton still trading as likely to advance.

This bettor is up $117K lifetime across 426 resolved markets.
They have traded across 273 events, suggesting a systematic cross-market approach rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 35¢ after a sharp Yes selloff implies they think Hilton’s advance odds are still too high.

$1,167 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% long-term win rate is buying Yes despite recent market weakness.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $62k lifetime.
They have traded across 28 related events and 38 markets, with $148k in cross-market activity.
They bought Yes at 71¢ after the market fell 11.5% in a day, suggesting conviction on the dip.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume political/event trader with a long cross-market track record is buying Yes on Hilton advancing, as part of a broader California governor positioning set.

This bettor has 892 resolved trades, wins 69% of them, and is up $843k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.2M across 154 markets and 104 events.
This looks like broader event positioning, with $13.5k placed across two related markets.

$1,991 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial politics bettor

Proven profitable serial cross-market trader bought $5.6k of Yes on Steve Hilton advancing, adding a strong copy-trade signal despite a fairly liquid market.

This bettor has won 69% of 884 resolved trades and is up about $806k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 103 events with over $1.1M in tracked event bets.
The $5.6k buy was large for recent activity, equal to about 83% of the market’s flagged 24h volume.

$5,598 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable cross-market whale

Profitable high-volume wallet with $806k lifetime P&L bought nearly $5k of Yes while also positioning across related California governor markets.

This bettor is up about $806k lifetime across $16.3M traded.
They bought nearly $5k of Yes, a large move relative to this market’s $6.7k daily volume.
They are also betting across related California governor markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.

$4,996 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 41849906, $26,894 (67% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 41849906, $12,775 (85% win rate)
0x661d...4dc6 — Outcome 41849906, $8,592 (68% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 41849906, $6,999 (48% win rate)
0x944e...8c94 — Outcome 41849906, $6,236 (67% win rate)
0x2e9e...1d23 — Outcome 41849906, $5,698
0xd24b...ef76 — Outcome 41849906, $3,000 (69% win rate)
0xb1cc...8f4c — Outcome 41849906, $2,429
0x6b0e...e3ea — Outcome 41849906, $2,393
0x203b...9dfd — Outcome 41849906, $1,611

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Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

ResolvedWho will advance from the California Governor primary?$29,948 tracked10 signalsPoliticsElectionsPrimariesCalifornia Governor

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.