Part of: NC-13 House Election Winner
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?
This Polymarket market asks whether the Democratic Party’s candidate will win North Carolina’s NC-13 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterms. The supplied metadata does not include current odds; the market is scheduled to resolve after the November 3, 2026 election, with a listed resolution date of November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,401.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Nov 4 Elections, Midterms, House Elections, North Carolina Midterm, US Election, Tossup House Races
Notable Trades
Linked wallets scaling into Democratic win
A large add to an existing Democratic position coincides with a 56.9x volume spike, rising odds, and a second wallet linked by funding source.
- The bettor added about $40,000 to an existing Yes position already worth over $162,000.
- Two wallets linked by a shared funder put about $40,000 into Yes as market volume spiked 56.9x and odds rose 18.5% over the week.
- The trades entered around 36–39¢, while Yes is now 40¢.
$40,060 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
Serial trader trimming No exposure
A serial cross-market trader with an 80% record sold part of a large existing No position as Yes odds rose, though their overall P&L is negative and this may be position management.
- This wallet has 295 resolved bets and an 80% win rate, and has traded across 39 events.
- The $1,341 sale reduces an existing $7,000 No position; it is not clearly a fresh Yes bet.
- Yes has risen 13 percentage points in a day, but the wallet is down $6,475 overall, so its track record warrants caution.
$1,341 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Yes, $152,876 (62% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $87,346
- 0x1bc3...dc6e — No, $30,109 (70% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — No, $20,000 (81% win rate)
- 0xdaef...54e9 — Yes, $10,000 (68% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — No, $9,674
- 0xd218...b5c9 — No, $7,977 (49% win rate)
- 0xa82b...5220 — Yes, $7,789 (46% win rate)
- 0xad86...f533 — Yes, $6,500 (0% win rate)
- 0x2b9d...adc0 — No, $5,926 (55% win rate)
Related Theses
Raman wins, Pratt loses
Covers 2 related markets
Spider-Man grosses $800M–$900M
Covers 2 related markets
No Press Secretary announced by 2026
Covers 1 related market
Oil-GOP double outcome unlikely
Covers 1 related market
Trump avoids insulting Carlson, Macron
Covers 2 related markets
Yulia Navalnaya wins Nobel Peace Prize
Covers 3 related markets
Arsenal will win October 18
Covers 1 related market
US-Iran deal by late May
Covers 6 related markets
Arsenal will winjonali
Covers 1 related market
