Part of: Maine Senate Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether the Democratic candidate will win Maine’s 2026 U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. The market has $7,029 in tracked smart-money activity and one recorded signal; live odds may change as the election approaches.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

14 smart money signals detected, totaling $60,742.

Categories: Maine Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, US Election, Politics, Elections, Graham Platner, Susan Collins, Troy Jackson, Global Elections, United States, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A profitable bettor with 262 resolved trades and a 79% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 60¢.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 262 resolved trades and is up $143,789 overall.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position at 60¢, below their 63¢ average entry.
  • The wallet has traded across 30 events, with $268,169 in total volume.

$2,130 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven 88% winner buys No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,535 resolved positions and an 88% win rate is buying No at 32¢, while also showing extensive cross-market activity.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,535 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They are buying No at 32¢, and have traded across 1,716 events with an 88% win rate.

$2,427 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven sharp re-entering Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 1,747 resolved positions is making a fresh $2,500 bet on Yes after previously holding the same outcome.

  • This bettor has an 82% win rate across 1,747 resolved positions and is up about $869,000.
  • They placed a fresh $2,500 bet on Yes after previously investing nearly $13,900 in the same outcome.
  • The trade is at 61¢, close to the current 61% market odds.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven sharp re-entering Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 1,747 resolved positions is making a fresh $2,500 bet on Yes after previously holding the same outcome.

  • This bettor has an 82% win rate across 1,747 resolved positions and is up about $869,000.
  • They placed a fresh $2,500 bet on Yes after previously investing nearly $13,900 in the same outcome.
  • The trade is at 61¢, close to the current 61% market odds.

$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A profitable bettor with 262 resolved trades and a 79% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 60¢.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 262 resolved trades and is up $143,789 overall.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position at 60¢, below their 63¢ average entry.
  • The wallet has traded across 30 events, with $268,169 in total volume.

$1,415 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Repeat new political whale

A 14-day-old wallet with repeated large-bet activity has now bought Yes on a plausible political edge market, though it lacks resolved P&L history.

  • This new wallet has already made 13 flagged large bets totaling $163K in under two weeks.
  • It bought $3.4K of Yes at 58¢ on a major Senate market with tight 1¢ spread.
  • Entry at 58¢ implies they see Democrats as meaningfully favored in Maine.

$7,029 on Yes

Elite political bettor buying Yes

Proven high-edge political bettor with an 82% win rate and $729k profit is adding a Yes position as part of broader cross-market positioning on this event.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $729k lifetime.
  • They have a long cross-market track record, with $290k traded across 35 events.
  • Entry at 56¢ is already slightly profitable with the market now around 58¢.

$2,911 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Repeat new political whale

A 14-day-old wallet with repeated large-bet activity has now bought Yes on a plausible political edge market, though it lacks resolved P&L history.

  • This new wallet has already made 13 flagged large bets totaling $163K in under two weeks.
  • It bought $3.4K of Yes at 58¢ on a major Senate market with tight 1¢ spread.
  • Entry at 58¢ implies they see Democrats as meaningfully favored in Maine.

$3,417 on Yes

85% win-rate political sharp

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate bought Yes on Democrats winning the Maine Senate race.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
  • They are a major cross-market trader, active across 110 events with $7.5M in flagged volume.
  • Entry at 66¢ suggests they still see value above the current 64¢ market price.

$3,297 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Elite cross-market political bettor

Highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate is buying Democratic Yes in the Maine Senate market.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
  • They have traded across 110 events and $7.5M of cross-market positions, suggesting a repeatable political-market edge.
  • They bought Yes at 65¢ while the market is only up 2 points this week, implying fresh confidence rather than chasing a big move.

$2,628 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $237,252
  2. 0xe899...0899 — Yes, $78,510 (72% win rate)
  3. 0x011f...1122 — No, $70,739 (39% win rate)
  4. 0x64c8...73ce — Yes, $65,000 (75% win rate)
  5. 0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $47,511 (40% win rate)
  6. 0xb4f2...7851 — Yes, $30,000 (40% win rate)
  7. 0x79d9...baec — Yes, $30,000 (91% win rate)
  8. 0xc8b9...b836 — Yes, $26,344 (64% win rate)
  9. 0x38e5...95e7 — No, $26,230 (75% win rate)
  10. 0xa0f2...1848 — No, $23,834 (45% win rate)

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Starmer exits in July

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Chargers keep pace in shootout

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Texans beat the Colts

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Rams win by at least four

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Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Maine Senate Election Winner$60,742 tracked14 signalsMaine MidtermSenate ElectionsMidtermsUS ElectionPoliticsElectionsGraham PlatnerSusan CollinsTroy JacksonGlobal ElectionsUnited StatesKey Senate RacesSenate midterms
Yes
74¢
No
27¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes”
76¢
68¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 20:26 UTC

$2,130 on Yes at 60¢

60¢→74¢↑14¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 13:19 UTC

$2,427 on No at 32¢

32¢→27¢↓5¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-27 15:56 UTC

$2,000 on Yes at 61¢

61¢→74¢↑13¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-27 04:33 UTC

$2,500 on Yes at 61¢

61¢→74¢↑13¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-27 00:07 UTC

$1,415 on Yes at 60¢

60¢→74¢↑14¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-07-23 10:29 UTC

$7,029 on Yes at 58¢

58¢→74¢↑16¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-07-08 14:59 UTC

$2,911 on Yes at 56¢

56¢→74¢↑18¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-07-02 20:27 UTC

$3,417 on Yes at 58¢

58¢→74¢↑16¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-06-10 19:57 UTC

$3,297 on Yes at 66¢

66¢→74¢↑8¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-06-10 19:39 UTC

$2,628 on Yes at 65¢

65¢→74¢↑9¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-05-28 00:02 UTC

$2,872 on Yes at 71¢

71¢→74¢↑3¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-05-21 03:13 UTC

$6,982 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→74¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-05-05 00:41 UTC

$14,634 on Yes at 69¢

69¢→74¢↑5¢

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

2026-05-02 03:41 UTC

$6,499 on Yes at 73¢

73¢→74¢↑1¢

Related Theses