Part of: Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will make the next Claude Sonnet model available to the general public by July 17, 2026. It covers officially named Sonnet releases such as Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, or Sonnet 5, while non-Sonnet models like Opus or Haiku do not qualify. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,020 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,020.

Categories: Claude 5, AI, Sonnet, Tech, anthropic

Notable Trades

Profitable serial forecaster

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a thin AI release market after a sharp 1-day move.

  • This bettor has 1,499 resolved trades and is up about $80,877 lifetime.
  • They are a very active cross-market trader, with $1.18M tracked across 495 markets.
  • Bought Yes at 83¢ while the market has jumped 15 points in the past day.

$1,020 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 41624382, $2,448 (49% win rate)
  2. 0xaa81...aaf7 Outcome 41624382, $2,000
  3. 0x126e...c360 Outcome 41624382, $2,000
  4. 0x0578...e1fb Outcome 41624382, $1,800
  5. 0xe3ae...217a Outcome 41624382, $892
  6. 0x7423...c55f Outcome 41624382, $624
  7. 0x3bc6...cba3 Outcome 41624382, $385
  8. 0x03e1...e180 Outcome 41624382, $282
  9. 0x61c4...fa64 Outcome 41624382, $204
  10. 0x1cdd...e595 Outcome 41624382, $147

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Covers 1 related market

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Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?

15dNext Claude Sonnet released by...?$1,020 tracked1 signalClaude 5AISonnetTechanthropic

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?

1d ago

$1,020 on Yes at 83¢

Related Theses