Part of: Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,020.

Categories: Claude 5, AI, Sonnet, Tech, anthropic

Notable Trades

Profitable serial forecaster

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a thin AI release market after a sharp 1-day move.

  • This bettor has 1,499 resolved trades and is up about $80,877 lifetime.
  • They are a very active cross-market trader, with $1.18M tracked across 495 markets.
  • Bought Yes at 83¢ while the market has jumped 15 points in the past day.

$1,020 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5a21...9318 — No, $2,448 (65% win rate)
  2. 0x126e...c360 — No, $2,000
  3. 0x0578...e1fb — No, $1,800
  4. 0xe3ae...217a — No, $892
  5. 0x7423...c55f — No, $624
  6. 0x3bc6...cba3 — No, $385
  7. 0x61c4...fa64 — No, $204
  8. 0xfefb...8f26 — No, $147
  9. 0x02ae...bad5 — No, $100
  10. 0x3329...43a6 — No, $100

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Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?

Next Claude Sonnet released by...?$1,020 tracked1 signalClaude 5AISonnetTechanthropic
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?

2026-06-30 04:33 UTC

$1,020 on Yes at 83¢

83¢→100¢↑17¢

Related Theses